This is slowly becoming my office dumb reach. Simple but just works. I an curious to see how it’d perform in a relatively hotter weather.

I don’t think the fragrance industry publishes a clean, official “failure rate” for new perfume launches, but the reality is pretty obvious once you zoom out: most new releases don’t become long-term winners. In consumer products more broadly, you’ll often see numbers like ~95% of new products failing tossed around, and fragrance feels like it follows that same pattern (especially for brand-new “pillar” launches). Why do so many launches disappear? - The market is flooded. You’ll see claims like 1,000+ new fragrances a year (and some reporting suggests it can be several thousand new entries in a year). - Most scents aren’t built for a 10-year run. A lot of releases are designed to sell fast, ride hype, then quietly fade. - Short lifespan = fast discounting. When something doesn’t hit, it often shows up discounted pretty quickly (you’ll recognize it when it suddenly lands at grey-market discounters). What “successful” usually means in the real world In the industry, “good” often just means it sells—consistently—at scale. Not necessarily that it’s the most artistic or enthusiast-approved. That’s why true monsters of sales and longevity (the stuff your non-frag friends recognize) are the real outliers—think the handful that turn into multi-year pillars for houses like Chanel and Dior. Why flankers and “safe” launches dominate : If you already have something that sells, a flanker is basically a lower-risk bet: - Familiar name + bottle DNA - Easier marketing - Built-in audience - Faster path to profit if it catches The twist: even if most individual launches fail, the category is booming The category can be on fire even while most new releases don’t survive long-term. For example: - In the U.S., prestige fragrance was up 6% (H1 2025), and mass market fragrance was up 17% (dollar sales). - U.S. prestige beauty in 2024 was heavily driven by fragrance growth (with one report citing prestige fragrance sales up 12% in 2024). Niche growth (with a grain of salt)

**Update: our resident Dua experts are telling me that Dua routinely runs sales even better than this, sometimes up to 36% off** Dua is having a sale to celebrate their 10th anniversary, up to 30% off I’ve never ordered from them (and with their enormous catalog, I’m not even sure where I’d want to start) but plenty of folks on here swear by them