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Evolution Trading

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ARE Alexandria Real Estate (two potential opportunities).
I am posting it in MPI category, but it might be a long-term hold as well. 1. MPI: ARE pays $1.32 in divi with ex-date 6/30. It reports 7/21. ARE is trading around 71.5 and one month out (07/18) slightly ITM $70 calls go for about 1.5-1.6. Since call premium (as of today) is higher than the divi, it is unlikely to be assigned, IF (big if) stock does not drop before 6/30. I am fine to be assigned and keep the premium as well as get the divi and hold over ER. 2. Why I consider holding. There are obvious reasons why this REIT fell from $200+ to below $70. However, considering that the worst is likely behind, debt is manageable, and Price / Book Value becomes attractive, I am willing to take the risk and hold it for some time collecting 7.4% divi + covered call premiums.
1 like • Sep 9
My first target is $90 and in my book a pullback to $82 is a buy. Divi is still 6% at this price.
1 like • 26d
While July ER was OK, the most recent one was bad. Not only they admitted things do not really improve, at least not as much and as fast as they thought they would, but they now consider dividend cut. That really spooked investors and the stock gapped down some 20%+ and sold off all the way down to $53 from high 70s. It is too early to conclude if that was an overreaction. I lowered strike on calls for now and wait to see how things develop. Their plan is to sell some properties. We'll see if they succeed with that plan.
Oneok (OKE)
It's a solid infrastructure play, in my opinion. At this price after a pullback it pays 6% divi. Options provide additional income. ATM Dec go for some 5.6%. Not bad in my book.
Crypto wipeout -75% for altcoins
On Friday, Trump talked about potential 100% tariffs on China starting November 1 The crypto market crashed significantly. This is not an accident. While Bitcoin only drops 10%, we noticed a lot of smaller meme coins dropped 60-80% Basically, the altcoin market got wiped out Any trader who used any form of leverage in crypto most likely got liquidated This comes back to my decision in the last "altcoin season" where people are making and losing millions with altcoins Altcoin season is when the smaller coins start going up a lot ​and peopel make a lot of money​ During the last altcoin season​ when traders are bringing in 100-800% return, I decided to exit all of them and put it into Bitcoin. This is because I noticed there's more and more manipulation where the coin founders are simply creating coins and dumping them immediately to make a quick buck. There are very few "serious" projects out there (compare to the number of scams) So during this crash, it shows how resilient Bitcoin is and it is not easy to crash the Bitcoin market given its market cap and dominance. My portfolio will continue to have Bitcoin only and the rest in equities.​ Cheers, Eric ---- Eric Seto Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) Chartered Investment Manager (CIM) Founder of 5MinInvesting.com In October, my goal is to help 10 people without a financial background to master investing through Investing Accelerator. Investing Accelerator is designed for people without a financial background. The goal is to achieve 30% return per year. In the first phase, you will learn long term investing and targeting 30% for tax free compound growth. This will help accelerate your overall wealth. In the second phase, you will learn monthly passive income to provide a more predictable cash flow (target 30% per year) which can cover your expenses. This will help accelerate your retirement goals. Here's a step by step guide on how to join Investing Accelerator for free: https://www.skool.com/invest-retire-community-1699/how-to-join-investing-accelerator-for-free
2 likes • Nov 5
@Eric Seto I'd say more like small cap (tech) stocks. ZCash is an excellent recent example.
Small caps experiment
​This post is inspired by Eric. Eric wrote: "To achieve a high return with small cap, you would need to focus on stock picking because there are a lot of bad apples within the 2000 companies. ​Whereas for blue chip, it is a lot more forgiving and diversification gives you a decent return." I know the rules, and I am not going to discuss any particular small cap stock. I just want to share that Eric's post made me to start a "small cap stock picking challenge". I allocated 1% of my capital to this. Since fundamentals of many of them is questionable at best, I decided to start with a price-based scan and then read on the company and check the fundamentals. Since small cap are volatile and prone to manipulation, I have a stop loss order on full position and sell order on 1.3 at the first target. It works so far. Since it is just 1% of my money, I won't get rich on small caps and neither I'll get poor because of this experiment. However, as an exercise in both stock picking and money management, I find it engaging and very useful. Thanks, Eric!
UNG
For covered call selling (aka PMI) lovers: UNG offers 5% a month on at-the-money calls. Be careful though, it can move fast. For those who is new to nat gas: storage is like 40% above 5-year average, but production is falling and demand is EXPECTED (translation: it is speculation) to rise. Hence high implied volatility, reflected in the high option premium. 0834 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are extending last week's bounce off technical support, backed by LNG feedgas demand and prospects of more power-sector use as Texas weather heats up. "If LNG can edge higher, a boost from laggard Henry Hub physical pricing may reinforce upward momentum for Nymex gas," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Also supportive is the decline in natural gas rigs, which fell by 3 last week to 102, according to Baker Hughes. "Producers have shed 19 rigs in 11 weeks, and the trend is likely to continue," Rubin says. Natural gas for June delivery is up 1.9% at $2.183/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com) P.S. I have a large position in NatGas and am losing big $ today on the three-day runup 😪. I have been biased short thinking the spike last week was a short covering and will exhaust itself.
UNG
2 likes • Jun 21
I closed puts I was short and am looking to sell a new batch. This summer is hot, and inventory is still about 7% below last year's level. Aiming for 4% a month average with strikes 15.5-17. It is a short-term trade as I expect price to top in July. Still, in my opinion, there is a good chance to roll puts down and out and let them expire worthless.
1 like • Nov 5
Time flies. Winter is coming. More often than not, but not always! winter is a good time to do CSP or covered calls on UNG. I am waiting for a pullback to $13 area to enter.
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Leon K
7
3,454points to level up
@leon-k-2154
A developing trader who is looking to exchange ideas with other developing traders and learn from those who are ahead of me in the game.

Active 14d ago
Joined Nov 5, 2023
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