How does win rate translate into profits for trading?
If you have done trading long enough, you will find that it is very difficult. Even if you manage to contain your emotions against the market swings, I often find myself emotionally derailing from my strategy unless I have cold hard rules in place So one of the most important concept for actively managed portfolio is win rate. When it comes to win rate, the easy metric to track is win rate for the year. For example - my win rate is around 70% per year. So every time I make a prediction, 70% is correct. No bad right? But there's more. Even though I conceptually understand my yearly win rate is 70% (across multiple years), that's not how it happens on a quarter to quarter basis (or even on a monthly basis) Instead, what I get is Q1 40% win rate, Q2 60% win rate, Q3 80% win rate, Q4 50% win rate So at times, I might feel like my system isn't working in Q1. And at times, I feel like my system is perfect (e.g. Q3 with 80% win rate) What's important - is that you have a method to keep the big picture win rate in mind such that you can compare yourself and see if you are still consistent (For example, tracking all the patterns you trade to make sure they still work) Another important thing is to track other metrics - like Sharpe ratio, average win vs loss, and overall profitability. With all these metrics, these are the tools that allow you to combat yourself when you get emotional (perhaps oil didn't spike in the direction you wanted) So annual win rate is one metric but remember it fluctuates between the days / weeks throughout the year - so you need to stay calm and carry on (and not jumping from system to system) Cheers, Eric ---- Eric Seto Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) Chartered Investment Manager (CIM) Founder of 5MinInvesting.com In April, I’m helping 10 people build a retirement cashflow strategy using options. The 2 strategies you will learn in Investing Accelerator: 1. Long-Term Investing with Options