Most people are taught to be buy and hold investors as you cannot time market. Yes - this is true.
In other words
If you cannot time the market, just buy and hold.
However
It is possible to time the market and this is how you can achieve a higher than average return.
The math is simple.
Imagine S&P 500 makes 10% per year.
You find a pattern (e.g. negative momentum, interest rate increase, bad earnings etc)
Option 1: You hold cash and the market went down 5% in one week and you buy it back
This means you are higher than the market by 5% = 15% per year.
This also means that you just need to hold cash one week out of the year to achieve such a gain
Option 2: You exit and you short the market when it went down 5% and buy it back after 1 week
This means you are higher than the market by 10% (you made 5% on the way down and 5% on the way up) = 20% per year
You just need to be right about one week out of the year going down to beat the market by 10%
This is what I spend a lot of time studying - patterns that would forecast the near term to be bearish.
This is why it is easy for a long / short strategy to perform better than buy and hold.
Cheers,
Eric
Eric Seto
Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA)
Chartered Investment Manager (CIM)
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