The Old 60/40 Portfolio vs. The New 60/40 Portfolio

Market Capitalization (log), in USD bn, 11/30/2025

Precious Metals Mining with Market Cap > USD 1bn - Top and Bottom 10 Performers

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- BITCOIN DID NOT CRASH. It was executed. - On December 1, 2025, Japan’s 10-year yield hit 1.877 percent—the highest since June 2008. - The 2-year rate touched 1 percent, a level not seen since before Lehman Brothers failed. - For thirty years, the world borrowed free Japanese money to buy everything. Tech stocks, Treasuries, Bitcoin. That era ended last month. - The transmission was mechanical. Yields rise. Yen strengthens. Leveraged positions become unprofitable. Selling begins. Selling triggers margin calls. Margin calls trigger liquidations. Liquidations trigger more selling. - October 10: $19 billion in crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours. The largest single-day wipeout in digital asset history. - November: $3.45 billion fled Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s fund lost $2.34 billion. It's the worst month since inception. - December 1: Another $646 million liquidated before lunch. - Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq: 46 percent. With the S&P 500: 42 percent. - While prices collapsed, whales accumulated 375,000 BTC. Miners cut selling from 23,000 BTC monthly to 3,672. Someone is buying what institutions are selling. ** The pivot point: December 18. Bank of Japan policy decision. If they hike and signal more, Bitcoin tests $75,000. If they pause, a short squeeze could reclaim $100,000 within days. - This is not about cryptocurrency anymore; it was a global deleveraging event, and the Japanese bond market pulled the trigger.