Charlie Billeo - One of the consequences of a more normal monetary policy regime has been the reversion to the mean in “meme stocks.” The rampant speculation that was prevalent in 2021 during 0% rates/QE is nowhere to be found, with many of the most popular meme stocks now down over 90% from their highs.
The stock market's performance around tax day has been a subject of analysis for many investors and financial experts. Historical data suggests that the market can exhibit volatility leading up to the tax filing deadline. This is often attributed to investors selling assets to raise cash for tax liabilities, especially following a year with significant gains. For instance, after a strong market year, there is typically some selling pressure as investors need to cover capital gains taxes. However, this trend is not consistent every year and can be influenced by a variety of factors. Interestingly, research indicates that the market often rebounds in the week following tax day. For example, in 19 out of the last 25 years, the S&P 500 index has traded positively in the week after the tax deadline, with an average gain that is significantly higher than the median one-week gain throughout the year. It's important for investors to consider these patterns as part of a broader investment strategy rather than relying on them as predictive indicators. Financial markets are complex and influenced by a multitude of factors, and while historical trends can provide insight, they do not guarantee future outcomes.
