Jun '25 • General discussion
U.S.-China Tariffs Expiry – July 2025
U.S.-China Tariffs are set to expire or be re-evaluated by July 2025, unless extended or modified.
Scenario 1: Tariffs Extended or Increased
Market Impact: Inflation up ⟶ yields rise, equities dip
Strategy:
Puts on $SPY (Jul/Aug expiry)Hedge
Long on $VIX Volatility spike on surprise tariff move
Long on US Dollar $UUP (Risk-off capital flow into USD)
Scenario 2: Tariffs Reduced or Rolled Back
Market Impact: Risk-on, yields stable/down, equities rally
Strategy:
Long on Retail ($XLY, $WMT, $TGT)
Long on Semiconductors, Industrial supply chains $AAPL, $NVDA, $SMH
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U.S.-China Tariffs Expiry – July 2025
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