5d (edited) • Acquisitions 🛍️
📣 ROUND 2: The Pricing Game! [complete]
📊 RESULTS ARE IN - here are the details & actual metrics for Round 2:
Strong engagement and solid reasoning across the board.
Most guesses clustered in the 25%–35% of UPB range, reflecting realistic risk pricing given vacancy, back taxes, and package dynamics.
Several of you correctly anchored on tax liability + timeline risk as the things most dragging down the value.
Actual purchase price: $3,000!! (~10% of the UPB)
That comes in below most estimates, reinforcing how cheap you can pick up a small-balance, vacant 1st position loan with negative factors like taxes and long foreclosure timelines (especially as part of a package deal, this trade was a total contract of 10 loans for $79,172.00 sale price - 38% of UPB total)
Closest guess (winner): with $7,075 (25% of UPB) - correct framework, even if the sale price surprised to the downside.
What's ironic about this - DJ was the actual buyer of this NPL back in 2024! Looks like you got a better deal than you remembered 😜
Honorable mentions:
- 30% of UPB with package logic
- - strong equity vs. tax offset analysis
- - wisdom-of-the-crowd approach
- Why this asset cleared at $3,000
- Where most investors overestimated value
- How buyers think about minimum viable pricing on small-balance seconds
- How this compares to pricing if the same asset were performing
And for those that missed it - here was the original post:
📣 The Pricing Game — Round 2
🕹️ How to Play
- Review the deal data below
- Comment with your best guess for the final sale price
- Optional: add 1–2 sentences explaining your logic
- Closest guess wins the round
📂 Today’s Deal: Another REAL Closed Transaction
Asset Type: Charged-Off, Non-Performing 1st Mortgage (Senior Lien, NPL)
Sale Date: 04/19/2024
Property Type: 1,394 sq/ft Single Family Home (average condition)
Location: Youngstown, OH 44502, Mahoning County
Property Fair Market Value: $35,000
1st Mortgage UPB: $28,300.55 (subject asset)
Status Notes:
- Non-Performing Senior Lien
- Charged off by the bank on 11/03/2023
- Property is vacant
- Delinquent property taxes: $6,646.70
- Sold to a Mastermind Accelerator member on 04/19/2024
- Part of a 10-asset package
What do you think this note actually sold for?
Leave your guess down below!
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24 comments
📣 ROUND 2: The Pricing Game! [complete]
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