📣 ROUND 2: The Pricing Game! [complete]
📊 RESULTS ARE IN - here are the details & actual metrics for Round 2: Strong engagement and solid reasoning across the board. Most guesses clustered in the 25%–35% of UPB range, reflecting realistic risk pricing given vacancy, back taxes, and package dynamics. Several of you correctly anchored on tax liability + timeline risk as the things most dragging down the value. Actual purchase price: $3,000!! (~10% of the UPB) That comes in below most estimates, reinforcing how cheap you can pick up a small-balance, vacant 1st position loan with negative factors like taxes and long foreclosure timelines (especially as part of a package deal, this trade was a total contract of 10 loans for $79,172.00 sale price - 38% of UPB total) Closest guess (winner): @Dj Olojo with $7,075 (25% of UPB) - correct framework, even if the sale price surprised to the downside. What's ironic about this - DJ was the actual buyer of this NPL back in 2024! Looks like you got a better deal than you remembered 😜 Honorable mentions: - @Iván Terrero 30% of UPB with package logic - @Andrew Bogie - strong equity vs. tax offset analysis - @Nathan Trenery - wisdom-of-the-crowd approach On Today's call, we’ll break down: - Why this asset cleared at $3,000 - Where most investors overestimated value - How buyers think about minimum viable pricing on small-balance seconds - How this compares to pricing if the same asset were performing And for those that missed it - here was the original post: 📣 The Pricing Game — Round 2 🕹️ How to Play 1. Review the deal data below 2. Comment with your best guess for the final sale price 3. Optional: add 1–2 sentences explaining your logic 4. Closest guess wins the round 📂 Today’s Deal: Another REAL Closed Transaction Asset Type: Charged-Off, Non-Performing 1st Mortgage (Senior Lien, NPL)