The Old 60/40 Portfolio vs. The New 60/40 Portfolio

- BITCOIN DID NOT CRASH. It was executed. - On December 1, 2025, Japan’s 10-year yield hit 1.877 percent—the highest since June 2008. - The 2-year rate touched 1 percent, a level not seen since before Lehman Brothers failed. - For thirty years, the world borrowed free Japanese money to buy everything. Tech stocks, Treasuries, Bitcoin. That era ended last month. - The transmission was mechanical. Yields rise. Yen strengthens. Leveraged positions become unprofitable. Selling begins. Selling triggers margin calls. Margin calls trigger liquidations. Liquidations trigger more selling. - October 10: $19 billion in crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours. The largest single-day wipeout in digital asset history. - November: $3.45 billion fled Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s fund lost $2.34 billion. It's the worst month since inception. - December 1: Another $646 million liquidated before lunch. - Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq: 46 percent. With the S&P 500: 42 percent. - While prices collapsed, whales accumulated 375,000 BTC. Miners cut selling from 23,000 BTC monthly to 3,672. Someone is buying what institutions are selling. ** The pivot point: December 18. Bank of Japan policy decision. If they hike and signal more, Bitcoin tests $75,000. If they pause, a short squeeze could reclaim $100,000 within days. - This is not about cryptocurrency anymore; it was a global deleveraging event, and the Japanese bond market pulled the trigger.

🥇 Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag and broken through the lower boundary, with AO confirming bearish dominance. However, the price has crossed the lower Bollinger band, and there is an imbalance at the top. 🔼 A rise above 86,500 will trigger a correction to 90,000; 🔽 A drop below 85,500 will bring BTCUSD down to 83,000.

We see a strong setup for a year-end rally driven by... - Fed & QT: The Fed is set to cut rates, and crucially, QT is ending (historically a bullish signal). - Economy: Underlying health is strong with pent-up demand in housing and manufacturing. - Visibility: The end of the government shutdown restores economic data visibility. - Positioning: Active managers are "offside" and likely to chase performance into year-end. - Technicals: Markets reached oversold levels in November (lowest RSI since April). - Seasonality: December historically finishes strong, especially after a pullback.