Here is the recording of our latest session. In our latest daily session, the room returned again and again to the same anomaly: the regime is not behaving the way it always has. Streets are not fully emptied. The internet is not comprehensively cut. Riot forces retreat from crowds throwing stones. This is not the pattern Iranians have learned to expect. That absence of brutality is the signal under examination. One part of the discussion leaned toward cautious optimism. The argument was simple and grounded in precedent. Every previous uprising reached this level and was met with overwhelming violence. This time, that violence is missing. If the regime were confident, it would already have crushed the streets. Its hesitation suggests internal decay, fear of escalation, and a shrinking willingness among foot soldiers to risk their lives for a collapsing system. Another part of the room refused to relax. Silence, they argued, is not neutrality. It can be preparation. It can be consolidation. It can be the pause before a coordinated strike. Revolutions fail when people mistake a tactical delay for surrender. The Islamic Republic has survived for decades by adapting, infiltrating, and exploiting moments of emotional overconfidence. The friction between these views mattered. Nobody pretended certainty. The disagreement was about posture, not loyalty. One side stressed momentum and morale. The other stressed operational discipline and worst case planning. Both were shaped by the same historical memory: 1979 did not fail because the streets lacked courage, it failed because power vacuums invite predators. What the room converged on was not prediction, but posture. Treat the regime as wounded, not dead. Act as if every lull could be reversed. Do not confuse absence of gunfire with absence of intent. Optimism without skepticism has killed more revolutions than fear ever has. The silence may be the sound of collapse. Or it may be the sound of a system deciding when to strike. Until proven otherwise, the only rational position is to assume it could be both.

New Year's Eve in Haifa, Israel. That's how a free country in the middle east looks like. secularism plays a huge part in this as well, while the symbols are very much religious - in the celebretions themselves we can see young muslim boys drinking alcohol or jews eating non-kosher food... also, a religion that considered to be heretics by Islam (and others) can have such a beautiful proud temple in the heart of the city in complete security - I am talking of course about the Bahai Temple. I hope we can see Iran and other countries in the region beautifly free and open as well.

Hi. I am an archaeolgoist living near Jerusalem, Israel. Background - desert ecologist at Sede Boqer for ten years (1984-1994), then conservation biologist at the Israel Nature and Parks Authority (1994-2014). Took early retirement (now 72) and working on Shiloh, Tel Bet Mirsim, Hazor, Ohalo, Bronze Age Collapse generally. Originally from Minnesota. St. Olaf College 1971-1975, Ph.D. Cornell (evolutionary ecology) 1975-1980. I live in a small cottage on top of a mountain in the Judean Hills, with 11 cats. Meet Esh, my Lake Van alpha cat.

So mainstream media in israel seems to bbe not knowledgeable enoug on the details of the resistance in ira. And how vast it, also Reza Pahlavi alternative doesn̈t get enough exposure. I believe that with not a lot of effort Armin can breach to mainstream media and get interview with main tv channels & etc. So first step would be collbration with israeli podcasters, israeli iran & middle-east scholars and etc. This would open a path to reach mainstream and even primetime. For example i recommend us to comment and send messages to expert like Ph.d Thamar that often is interviewed in podcasts and etc. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DS-ZWFxjzAq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link Also i note that altogh she seems very knowledgeable she also precive the opposition current status differently from Armin, for example she claim that reza pahlavi is not as popular, at least when i heard her interview about a year ago