Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) - 28 April

📚 What is Zacks ESP (Earnings Surprise Prediction)?

Zacks ESP stands for Earnings Surprise Prediction. It's a quantitative indicator designed to help predict the likelihood that a company will beat or miss upcoming earnings estimates.

"ESP" = Expected Surprise Prediction
Created by Zacks Investment Research (very well-respected for stock research and rankings)

🔍 How It Works:

The Zacks ESP measures the difference between:

The Most Accurate Estimate ➔ (latest analyst revisions, often fresher and more reliable)
The Zacks Consensus Estimate ➔ (average of all published estimates)

If ESP is positive → analysts are quietly raising estimates ➔ more likely to beat earnings
If ESP is negative → analysts are cutting estimates ➔ more likely to miss earnings

✅ Why It Matters:

Positive ESP stocks historically have a higher probability of delivering an earnings beat.
Zacks combines ESP with their proprietary Zacks Rank to improve prediction accuracy even more.
Traders and investors sometimes use high ESP as a signal to buy before earnings

NFA

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