🔥 Market Intelligence Update: Critical Week Ahead (Nov 17-23)

What's happening right now that matters for your portfolio 👇

📊 The Macro Picture

We're entering a CRUCIAL data week with the September jobs report (Thursday) and FOMC minutes (Wednesday). The Fed's getting increasingly cautious - at least 5 officials are now questioning December rate cuts.

Kashkari's quote says it all: "When it's foggy, let's just be a little careful and slow down."

🚨 Market Stress Signals

Corporate bankruptcies hit 15-YEAR HIGH (655 YTD vs 687 for all of 2024)
Unusual market action: Stocks AND bonds falling together
Credit spreads failed to confirm recent equity strength (early warning sign)
CTA/volatility control strategies likely net sellers here

💻 AI Trade Under Pressure

The AI narrative is facing serious headwinds:

Open-source models (Kimi K2) performing at fraction of GPT costs
Capital becoming THE bottleneck (not just chips/power)
Oracle credit concerns widening
Market questioning massive capex ROI

🪙 Crypto & DeFi Update

Price Action:

BTC: $98,329 (-2.61% WoW) - rejected at psychological $100k
ETH: $3,174 (-3.92% WoW)
$463M in liquidations when BTC pulled back from $100k

The Bright Spots: 🌟

USDC exploding: $73.7B circulation (+108% YoY)
Circle net income: $214M (+202% YoY)
Stablecoin rails strengthening everywhere
Major regulatory clarity coming (CFTC leveraged spot trading, UK stablecoin regs, IRS staking guidance)

🎯 Actionable Strategy for This Week

Near-term positioning:

Stay cautious - Let de-risking run its course
Watch credit spreads - They're telling us something's off
DeFi focus: Lean into stablecoin infrastructure plays, onchain FX, tokenized funds
Key levels: BTC $100k psychological, monitor for stability

What I'm watching:

Thursday's jobs report (GS expects +80k NFP)
NVDA earnings (Wed) - Critical for AI capex signals
Credit market deterioration (especially in Industrials/Consumer Discretionary)
Stablecoin adoption metrics

🔮 The Bigger Picture

We're seeing a "K-shaped" recovery - strong at the top, weak at the bottom. Low-end consumer showing real stress while markets hit records. This divergence can't last forever.

My take: This is a market where capital preservation > chasing gains. Quality balance sheets and proven DeFi infrastructure (especially stablecoin rails) look most attractive here.

The regulatory momentum in stablecoins/tokenization is REAL and accelerating globally. Position accordingly.

Questions for the community: