๐ Market Intelligence Briefing: Global Asset Trends and Digital Infrastructure
Even with the move higher in rates, global financial markets exhibit a resilient "risk-on" sentiment ๐, underpinned by a significant compression in bond volatility. Despite a "bear flattening" of the US yield curve following strong economic data, equities have successfully absorbed higher yields. The commodity sector is experiencing a metals-led resurgence โก, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) reaching levels not seen since 2022. Simultaneously, the digital asset complex continues to mature, with Bitcoin approaching the $95,000 threshold ๐ and institutional infrastructure expanding through new derivatives and tokenization initiatives. Key risks โ ๏ธ include a bifurcated US housing market and rising "travel and arrive" dynamics as market expectations reset higher ahead of Q1 earnings and political events. ๐น Global Market Sentiment and Fixed Income The current market environment is characterized by a "nominal inflation / run it hot" theme ๐ฅ. While US interest rates have seen upward pressure, several factors are maintaining stability: ๐ Volatility Compression: The MOVE Index continues to grind lower (reaching approximately 56.14 on January 15, 2026), allowing equities to remain resilient even as yields rise. ๐ Yield Curve Dynamics: The US market experienced "bear flattening" following better-than-expected initial claims and regional surveys. Current pricing suggests just under two interest rate cuts by December 2026. ๐ณ Credit Conditions: Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) spreads remain "well-behaved." Funding markets show no signs of stress โ
, and new issue concessions remain modest despite a heavy supply pipeline for the year. ๐ Equity Performance: Small caps have shown resilience against rate pressure ๐ช. However, cyclical versus defensive ratios have stalled, and reactions to Q1 earnings have been mixed, increasing the "travel and arrive" risk as expectations are reset higher. โก Commodity Market Analysis The commodity ETF market, while representing only 3% ($373 billion) of the total $14 trillion ETF universe ๐, is seeing renewed interest following a recent metals rally.