Bitcoin Bull Market Intact Despite Government Shutdown Concerns 🎯

Just analyzed the macro setup and here's what's shaping up for Bitcoin and digital assets:

The Government Shutdown Wild Card 🏛️

Polymarket is currently betting the shutdown won't end until mid-November 📅.

While this adds a layer of uncertainty to markets, it's actually setting up an interesting dynamic for Bitcoin. Once this uncertainty clears, we could see risk assets catch a bid again 🚀.

The Global Money Printer is Warming Up 💸

Here's the real story that matters for us in DeFi - over the next 6-18 months, every major central bank has no choice but to print:

• The Fed 🇺🇸 - Will continue monetizing deficit spending (as they have since 2008)

• ECB 🇪🇺 - Same playbook in Europe

• PBoC 🇨🇳 - China's already ramping up stimulus

• Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 - New PM talking about social programs = more deficit spending = more printing

Japan's situation is particularly interesting 👀.

The BoJ already owns half their bond market (!), and with their new leadership pushing for more spending, the yen carry trade could become even more profitable. Translation: Traders borrow cheap yen → buy Bitcoin 💹.

Bitcoin Technical Setup 📊

The correction from $126k to $110k hasn't broken the bull market structure:

Critical support at 50-week MA held perfectly ✅ during the recent test
Even the flash crash to $102k couldn't break the uptrend 💪
Pattern remains intact for a move back above $126k 📈

My take: I'm a buyer at these levels 🛒. Would need to see the 50-week MA decisively broken to turn bearish, and we're nowhere near that.

ETH vs BTC Allocation ⚖️

While ETH is sitting at trend line support with its 50-week MA, the pattern isn't as clean as Bitcoin's. If I had to pick one asset for allocation right now, it's BTC all day 🥇.

That said, when Bitcoin eventually breaks to new ATHs above $126k, it'll pull the entire altcoin complex higher with it 🌊. That's when we'd likely see Bitcoin dominance roll over and alts outperform 🔄.

The Bottom Line 🎯

The macro setup is clear: Central banks globally have no option but to debase their currencies 🖨️. In this environment, Bitcoin's trajectory over the next 2, 6, 12, and 18 months is UP ⬆️.

The bull market structure remains intact. Use any dips toward that 50-week MA as gift entries 🎁.

What's your take on the current setup? Anyone else positioning for the next leg higher? 💭

6:29

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