New Paper Drops on the Fermi paradox
In a recent YouTube video, Sabien Hosenfelder reported on a new paper that claims that the fact that we haven't captured signals from extraterrestrial civilizations provides a constraint on the time that high technology civilizations tend to survive before going silent. (Spoiler alert--It's 5000 years.) Personally, while I agree the paper is worthy of publication think this argument is irrelevant. I think a far more likely reason why we haven't seen an alien radio transmission is that eavesdropping on random radio chatter in star systems that is many light years away isn't easy. If an alien civilization wants to be seen by its distant neighbors it would have to create a beacon that would broadcast signals that were designed to attract attention and do so over a wide solid angle, and they would have to commit to continuing that research effort for about 100,000 years to have a high likelihood of success. What intelligent species would commit resources to continue such a program for many thousands of years? When talking about alien civilizations it not just about physics. It's also about the social factors that might be driving them. I think that element is sorely lacking in these discussions. I hope you'll check you my favorite contrarian on YouTube and let me know what you think about all this. Enjoy