There’s a quiet storm brewing: the escalating collapse of Class A CDL driver retention and recruitment. And in an inflationary 2026 economy? This might be the single biggest constraint on freight flow as we head further into 2026. The Numbers: - 80,000+ driver shortfall today, projected to hit 160,000 by 2030 (ATA) - 90%+ turnover at large truckload carriers (some long-haul fleets: 100-300%) - Average driver age: 47, with massive retirements looming while 18-35s avoid trucking - ~$12,799 cost per lost driver (before equipment recovery and late fees + ~G&A) - Wages declining: 2024 saw only 2.5% pay increase vs. higher inflation. Average weekly pay dropped 7.4% Q1-Q2 2024 ($1,730 → $1,602) Why This Matters Now: Since April 2025, inflation re-accelerated (core CPI 3.8%, diesel up 12% YoY). But here's what makes this critical: We're entering a tight capacity regime. Market structure indicators show that capacity availability is falling below critical thresholds. The kind of inflection point that precedes contract rate increases by months. This creates a collision of forces: - Capacity tightens just as the driver crisis intensifies - Wage pressure intensifies as drivers demand cost-of-living increases - Freight rates remain volatile, making mile-based pay even more unpredictable - Consumer demand rebounds, but carriers lack human capital to capture it - Small carriers close (depleted PPP/ERC funds), reducing industry capacity One BIG Problem: Process & Structure Failure: 1. Retention Crisis - 81.9% of job-seeking drivers prioritize predictable pay - 60% cite "lack of miles" as their compensation issue - Mile-based pay creates financial insecurity no bonus can fix 2. Process Inefficiencies - Job postings surged 63.5% in 2024 alone (Apr-Dec), signaling intensifying competition among carriers - Companies lose drivers between the application and onboarding - The company that responds first "wins" when drivers apply to multiple jobs simultaneously

The U.S. has suspended immigrant visas across 75 countries, including Pakistan, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Uganda, Somalia, and North Macedonia. (https://interactive.guim.co.uk/datawrapper/embed/J5axN/3/) While the administration cites welfare concerns, this could indirectly affect the CDL driver workforce, as 18% of U.S. truck drivers are foreign-born, and many come from countries on this list. Combined with the August 2025 work visa pause for truck drivers, this adds another layer of restriction that might affect the driver market over time: - Fewer new drivers entering the system - Slower capacity replacement for fleets - Added pressure on an already fragile carrier base Layer this on top of carrier exits, high operating costs, and reduced truck orders, and it's another factor pointing toward capacity tightening. Link to article: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-administration-suspends-immigrant-visas-191646725.html