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DAY TRADE β€” SPX / SPY β€” Short Bias
Short bias today. Supply zone sitting at 6693-6703 on the 5-minute β€” that's where sellers should step in if this level holds. IF price pushes up into 6689.89-6703 and supply mitigates β†’ I'm looking for a short entry on the rejection, targeting 6663. ⚑ EXECUTION PACKAGE Entry: Short on rejection from 6689.89-6703 supply Stop: Just above 6703 Target: 6663 Risk: 0.5% of account Conviction: 6/10 β€” Day trade only. Structure is there but intraday setups carry more noise. Clean invalidation above supply keeps risk defined. πŸ“‹ GAME PLAN IF price reaches 6689.89-6703 and rejects β†’ short entry, targeting 6663 IF price accepts above 6703 β†’ supply failed, no trade IF price never reaches supply β†’ no trade, we wait 5m chart: View chart Day trade only β€” in and out today. No overnight holds. Reply below if you're watching this one.
Cruise Line Sector β€” Ticker Request Breakdown
Someone asked about the cruise line sector. Here’s my read on all three names. --- CCL (Carnival) β€” Bullish (Position Trade Potential) Price is dropping right now. I’m not interested in trading this drop. What I am watching: price is trading into higher timeframe accumulation. There’s a fairly large demand zone at 15.07-21.78 that could be an entry if price retraces that far. There’s also a price inefficiency at 20.50-21.55 β€” price moved through here too fast and gaps like that tend to get filled. This one has potential as a position trade, but for me to get interested, price has to pull back further into that demand. GAME PLAN IF price retraces into 15.07-21.78 β†’ potential long entry IF price fills the inefficiency at 20.50-21.55 and holds β†’ early sign of buyer interest IF price breaks below 15.07 β†’ thesis invalidated Risk: 0.5-1% of account per setup. Daily chart --- RCL (Royal Caribbean) β€” Bullish (Better Option If You Like Cruise Lines) If you’re bullish on cruise lines, RCL is the cleaner setup right now. Price is trading between HTF supply at 335.33-356.17 and HTF demand at 245.25-268.55. Right now price is near or inside that HTF demand β€” that’s good positioning. The issue: lower timeframe hasn’t shown strength yet β€” meaning on the shorter charts (1hr, 4hr), buyers haven’t proven they’re stepping in. No confirmation yet. Two approaches: 1. DCA approach (early entry): If you’re keen on entering before lower timeframe confirms, you can buy in small increments as price pulls deeper into the demand zone, as long as price respects the lower bound at 245.25. The idea is you’re building a position gradually rather than going all-in at one level. If 245.25 breaks, thesis is done β€” exit everything. Why consider this? Sometimes price bounces perfectly off the demand zone and we never get that clean lower timeframe confirmation. DCA lets you participate if that happens, at the cost of a wider average entry.
Ticker Requests β€” Drop Them Here
Putting together this week's watchlist. If there's a name you want me to run through the framework, drop it below. I'll pull up the structure, check for clean zones, and if it scores well enough, it gets a full execution package with levels. What do you want me to look at?
Weekly Watchlist β€” March 16-21
4 setups this week β€” 2 swing longs, 1 commodity watch, and 1 short. Two came from community requests. Full execution packages below. Post your trade plans in the comments β€” I'll review every one. --- IGV β€” Bullish Swing IGV tapped into higher timeframe demand within accumulation β€” this is the zone where big buyers stepped in during the last major impulse. Think of it as the origin of that entire move higher. When price came back to test it, we got a rejection with heavy volume, which tells us those same institutional buyers are defending this area. Since that rejection, price broke internal structure to the upside at 87.08. That's the shift β€” it tells us the demand held and buyers are in control of the short-term direction. That breakout also created fresh demand below at 76.26-83.29. This is the new floor. If price retraces into this zone, it's a clean swing entry for anyone not already positioned. Above current price, there's distribution and inefficient price movement β€” areas where price moved too fast and left unfinished business. Those gaps tend to get filled over time, which gives us our targets. ⚑ EXECUTION PACKAGE Entry Zone: 76.26-83.29 (new demand created by the internal BOS at 87.08) Stop: Below 76.26 (demand zone invalidation β€” if buyers can't hold here, the thesis breaks) T1: 96.00 β€” this level has acted as a key area on multiple occasions. Take partial profit, move stop to breakeven T2: 101.90 β€” second area of inefficient price movement above T3: 107+ β€” full exit or hold a small runner into the supply zone Risk: 0.5% of account Invalidation: Daily close below 76.26 πŸ“‹ GAME PLAN IF price retraces to 76.26-83.29 and holds β†’ initiate swing long IF price closes below 76.26 on the daily β†’ thesis invalidated, no entry, no re-entry without new structure IF T1 hit at 96 β†’ take partial profit, move stop to breakeven IF T2 hit at 101.90 β†’ take another partial, trail your stop below the most recent higher low IF price chops inside the demand zone without breaking down β†’ patience. Let it resolve. The structure is still valid as long as 76.26 holds
ADBE β€” Supply Held Through Earnings. Here's the Full Structure.
@Collin Farmer β€” remember when you asked if now was a good time to buy Adobe? I told you the market structure was ugly as foot. Here's what just happened. Adobe reported after hours β€” earnings beat, revenue beat, CEO stepping down. Three bullish headlines. Price rallied. And capped directly into our lower supply zone at 284-306. The structure: I was previously bullish on ADBE. Then price broke key market structure around 275 β€” that was the line in the sand. Once 275 broke, bias shifted bearish regardless of fundamentals. Two supply zones were mapped: β€’ Lower supply: 284-306 β€’ Upper supply: 327-344 What happened: Earnings dropped. Price rallied into the 284 area β€” the bottom of our lower supply zone β€” and immediately sold off after hours. The zone held. Structure > headlines. Why this matters: This is the principle in action. If fundamental news isn't explosive enough to gap through mapped structure, the structure absorbs the move. Positive earnings + CEO change wasn't enough to crack supply that was already sitting there. The read going forward: β€’ 275 remains the key structural level β€” below it, bears have control β€’ 284-306 supply just proved itself. Sellers are active here β€’ For ADBE to flip bullish, price needs to reclaim 275 AND push through 284-306 with acceptance β€’ Until then, rallies into supply = selling opportunities IF price reclaims 275 and holds β†’ reassess for longs IF price continues rejecting at 284-306 β†’ structure confirmed bearish IF price gaps through 327-344 β†’ full reversal πŸ“Š Daily chart Use this going forward: If you're holding anything through earnings next week, post your levels here before the report drops. I'll review your zones so you're not guessing when the number hits. Did anyone else have ADBE on their radar heading into tonight? Drop your read below β€” even if you didn't trade it, I want to see how you would've mapped it.
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