It's Sunday. Just want to re emphasise this, on how to think long term during dead weeks Dead weeks mess with your perception. nothing moves, so you feel like time is being wasted. But long term thinking isn’t about activity. it’s about positioning and preservation. Zoom out to weekly and monthly. ask yourself what actually changed. most of the time, the answer is nothing. Use these weeks to clean up process. review past trades. refine levels. adjust expectations. Long term outcomes are decided by how you behave when there’s no excitement. not when candles are flying. if you can stay patient here, you’ll be ready when momentum returns.

Remember conviction isn’t formed when price is going up. that’s just confirmation. real conviction is built when price goes against you and you don’t panic. drawdowns force you to confront your reasoning. why you entered. what would invalidate it. whether you actually believe in the bigger picture. most people only want conviction after price proves them right. by then, risk is already higher. sitting through drawdowns teaches patience, sizing, and restraint. it hardens decision making. when the next expansion comes, you’re not chasing. you’re positioned. that’s how conviction is earned.

Another question popped out, and basically it's why you have to be comfortable being wrong first most people think good traders are right often. that’s not true. good traders are wrong early, then right later. markets don’t reward perfect timing. they reward correct direction with patience. you enter where risk makes sense, not where certainty exists. that means price can move against you first. that discomfort is normal. necessary, even. every major move looks wrong at the start. breakouts retest. bottoms chop. accumulation feels like dead money. if you only want to be right immediately, you end up chasing. buying strength late. selling weakness late. being wrong initially tests conviction. being right eventually rewards it. this is why sizing matters. small enough to survive the doubt. large enough to matter when you’re right. the goal isn’t to avoid being wrong. it’s to stay positioned long enough for the market to agree with you. most people exit right before that happens.

Today's newsletter is out: https://swiss-islamic-finance.beehiiv.com/p/why-altseason-has-not-started-yet-part-2-of-4

daily view. both sides. bull case for usdt.d (bearish for crypto) usdt.d has been trending up cleanly. higher highs, higher lows intact. price holding above the 5.9% area. that level acted as resistance before, now flipped support. rsi holding above mid range. no clear bearish divergence yet. if usdt.d continues pushing towards 6.5% and above, that usually means capital staying parked in stables. risk appetite still low. alts struggle. btc upside capped. this environment favours chop and downside wicks. bear case for usdt.d (bullish for crypto) sto rsi is already stretched and cycling aggressively. this tells me momentum is hot short term. usdt.d pushing without strong expansion can lead to sharp pullbacks. especially if it fails to hold above 6%. a rejection and breakdown back below 5.9% would be important. that would signal capital rotating back into risk. historically, when usdt.d rolls over from elevated levels, crypto gets breathing room. first btc, then alts. bottom line as long as usdt.d stays elevated, expect patience, chop, and selective pain. for crypto to really move, usdt.d needs to lose momentum and roll over. watch 5.9%. that level decides the next phase.