22d • Crypto Market Updates
Why I’m not bearish in crypto: part 2
Remember the 7-year panic cycle we discussed back in December? That cycle is live now — but most are looking at it through the wrong lens.
This isn’t playing out on USD pairs. It’s unfolding on gold-denominated charts.
Bitcoin already crashed — just not in dollars.
BTC has been in a 14-month drawdown vs gold, landing back at major high-time-frame support. That’s why headlines now say “gold has outperformed BTC over the last 5 years.” They’re late to the realization.
The Time Alignment: • BTC made its final low on Jan 28 — exactly 7 years from the prior cycle low. • Both instances were preceded by a straight 6-month decline. • Major BTC lows continue to print every 84 months (7 years), with the midpoints of the cycle also producing significant bottoms.
This mirrors the 2020 crash structure that ignited the last bull run — same blend of time and price compression.
People panic because they only understand the 4-year cycle. But the dominant forces are larger.
BTC is not crashing in USD terms — because USD is what’s breaking. Across gold and silver denominated pairs, nearly everything has already “crashed” and is now sitting on major long-term support.
Meanwhile, the metals trade has turned frenetic — the classic late-phase behavior.
Time, not headlines, decides regime shifts.
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Why I’m not bearish in crypto: part 2
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