Most projects don't fail because of construction delays, bad contractors, or market shifts. They fail because of decisions made, or avoided, before the first euro goes in. Here are the four upstream mistakes I see most often, and what I evaluate before committing to any project. 1. Optimistic timelines Everyone wants to believe licensing takes 6 months. In Portugal, depending on the câmara, it can take 12–18. If the financial model only works with a fast timeline, the project is already fragile. I stress-test every timeline by adding 30–50% buffer before running the numbers. If the deal still works with delays, it might be real. 2. Unclear exit assumptions "We'll sell at market price" is not an exit strategy. What market? What buyer profile? What absorption rate? A project in Figueira da Foz sells differently than one in Lisbon, different buyer, different speed, different pricing sensitivity. If the exit isn't defined with specifics, the returns are a guess. 3. Capital structured before strategy This one is common: someone raises money first, then figures out the deal. The problem is that once capital is committed, you're under pressure to deploy it, which leads to forcing deals that don't fit. Structure should follow strategy, not the other way around. First: what are we building, for whom, and why does it work? Then: how much capital, from whom, under what terms? 4. Partners aligned on upside, not downside Everyone agrees when projections look good. The real test is: what happens when costs go up 15%? When licensing stalls? When the market shifts mid-project? If the partnership hasn't defined who decides what under stress, and how capital is protected when things go wrong, the structure is incomplete. The takeaway The best developers I work with spend more time deciding not to move forward than rushing to close. Discipline at the front end is what protects capital at the back end.

INE just released the numbers. Here's what matters: Median bank appraisal value hit €1,949/m² in 2025. Every region in Portugal grew. No exceptions. Quick snapshot: Apartments: +21.0% → €2,239/m² Houses: +11.5% → €1,435/m² Biggest regional jump: Setúbal Peninsula at +23.0% December standalone: Greater Lisbon apartments at €3,199/m², Algarve at €2,758/m² Interesting detail: the number of appraisals actually dropped 7.2% year-on-year. Fewer transactions, higher values. Why we should care: These are bank appraisal values, which banks accept when processing mortgages. This directly affects two things in development projects: exit pricing assumptions and refinancing conditions. Higher appraisals = stronger refinancing positions = how investor capital gets repaid in structured deals. The flip side: entry costs for the next project are also climbing. Are you seeing these increases reflected in the deals you're evaluating?