Most projects don't fail because of construction delays, bad contractors, or market shifts. They fail because of decisions made, or avoided, before the first euro goes in. Here are the four upstream mistakes I see most often, and what I evaluate before committing to any project. 1. Optimistic timelines Everyone wants to believe licensing takes 6 months. In Portugal, depending on the câmara, it can take 12–18. If the financial model only works with a fast timeline, the project is already fragile. I stress-test every timeline by adding 30–50% buffer before running the numbers. If the deal still works with delays, it might be real. 2. Unclear exit assumptions "We'll sell at market price" is not an exit strategy. What market? What buyer profile? What absorption rate? A project in Figueira da Foz sells differently than one in Lisbon, different buyer, different speed, different pricing sensitivity. If the exit isn't defined with specifics, the returns are a guess. 3. Capital structured before strategy This one is common: someone raises money first, then figures out the deal. The problem is that once capital is committed, you're under pressure to deploy it, which leads to forcing deals that don't fit. Structure should follow strategy, not the other way around. First: what are we building, for whom, and why does it work? Then: how much capital, from whom, under what terms? 4. Partners aligned on upside, not downside Everyone agrees when projections look good. The real test is: what happens when costs go up 15%? When licensing stalls? When the market shifts mid-project? If the partnership hasn't defined who decides what under stress, and how capital is protected when things go wrong, the structure is incomplete. The takeaway The best developers I work with spend more time deciding not to move forward than rushing to close. Discipline at the front end is what protects capital at the back end.

INE just released the numbers. Here's what matters: Median bank appraisal value hit €1,949/m² in 2025. Every region in Portugal grew. No exceptions. Quick snapshot: Apartments: +21.0% → €2,239/m² Houses: +11.5% → €1,435/m² Biggest regional jump: Setúbal Peninsula at +23.0% December standalone: Greater Lisbon apartments at €3,199/m², Algarve at €2,758/m² Interesting detail: the number of appraisals actually dropped 7.2% year-on-year. Fewer transactions, higher values. Why we should care: These are bank appraisal values, which banks accept when processing mortgages. This directly affects two things in development projects: exit pricing assumptions and refinancing conditions. Higher appraisals = stronger refinancing positions = how investor capital gets repaid in structured deals. The flip side: entry costs for the next project are also climbing. Are you seeing these increases reflected in the deals you're evaluating?

The full breakdown of the 4 risks we evaluate before any capital moves, and how to spot them early. Risk #1 — Timeline Risk Delays happen in every project. What matters is whether the deal was built to handle them. If the margin only works on a perfect schedule, it's not a margin — it's a prayer. Risk #2 — Capital Mismatch - Investor expects 12 months, project takes 18 - Pressure to return capital early forces bad exits - The fix is simple: match the timeline to the capital before signing anything Risk #3 — Decision Risk When problems hit, who makes the call? The best deals define this upfront: - Who has authority - What triggers action - How investors get informed The worst deals figure it out mid-crisis. Risk #4 — Execution Risk - Has the team built this type of project before? - Do they communicate when things change — or go silent? - Can you talk to a previous investor they didn't hand-pick? Track record isn't about how many projects they completed. It's about how they handled the ones that went sideways.

Before you invest, there's a moment when everything looks good. The numbers work. The location makes sense. The operator seems credible. That feeling is not due diligence. It's comfort. Real due diligence forces you to ask questions nobody wants to answer, and to walk away when those answers don't exist. What experienced investors evaluate: 1. Decision Rights — Who has authority when the plan stops working? — If additional capital is needed, who approves it? — Do you have any voice, or are you just along for the ride? 2. Capital Position — Where do you sit in the repayment order? — If the project underperforms, whose money takes the first hit? — What security exists, and is it enforceable? 3. Timeline Reality — Has the schedule been stress-tested? — What happens if completion takes 18 months instead of 12? — Does your liquidity expectation match what the project can deliver? 4. Conflict Mechanics — If partners disagree, how are decisions resolved? — Are there contractual mechanisms, or just goodwill? Before your next investment, ask yourself: — Who decides what if the plan changes? — Where does my capital sit relative to other money? — Is there a buffer in the timeline? — Are reporting expectations documented? If any of these are unclear, you're not investing. You're hoping\

Recent data from the National Statistics Institute (INE) shows a noticeable rise in bank property valuations across Portugal in 2025. 🏠 The median bank appraisal value for housing increased by 17.3% compared to 2024, reaching €1,949 per m², and every region registered an increase. 📈 By property type: * The median valuation for apartments jumped 21.0% to €2,239/m², * While for houses it rose 11.5% to €1,435/m². 📅 Looking only at December 2025, the median valuation was €2,081/m², 19.1% higher year-on-year. Among regions: * Greater Lisbon and the Algarve recorded the highest appraisal values, * The Setúbal Peninsula posted one of the largest year-on-year increases. These figures don’t necessarily reflect transaction prices — they reflect how banks are valuing property for financing. For investors, understanding how valuations evolve can be as critical as market prices themselves. Source: https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2026-01-28/portugal-property-valuations-rise/951086