Hey, NVDA reports today after the close, and this is one of those earnings where the reaction can tell you more about the entire AI cycle than the numbers themselves. IV Rank is high (37), implied move is around 6-7%. Historically, NVDA often moves less than implied, and post-earnings IV drops fast. Everyone tonight is obsessed with one thing: "How are you trading NVDA earnings?" My honest answer: most people shouldn't. It's a crowded, binary event with sky-high expectations already priced in. Yes, IV is juicy, but one wrong line in the guidance and you're fighting a 10-15% gap in a single name. I'd rather attack the same theme, AI and semiconductors, in a calmer, higher-probability way: through SMH, the semiconductor ETF. So why SMH gives more edge than straight NVDA? SMH still benefits from the whole AI chip story, but: - You're diversified across the basket, not hostage to one conference call. - Earnings noise in any single name is diluted. - IV is elevated, but moves are usually much more reasonable than NVDA's all or nothing gaps. That's exactly the environment where short premium, and high probability of profit shines. So, my main play today is not NVDA itself, but a Jade Lizard in SMH: