The Importance of Remembering the Fog of War as Events Unfold

As reports begin to surface about the upcoming Iran operation, it is critical for the public to pause, breathe, and remember one enduring truth of conflict: the fog of war is real, unavoidable, and often misleading—especially in the earliest stages.

In moments like these, information moves faster than understanding. Social media fills gaps before facts are confirmed, analysts speculate in real time, and emotionally charged narratives take hold long before reality has a chance to emerge. This is precisely when caution matters most.

What Is the “Fog of War”?

The term fog of war refers to the uncertainty, confusion, and incomplete information that surrounds military operations and conflicts. Coined by military theorist Carl von Clausewitz, it describes the reality that no participant—commanders, governments, journalists, or the public—has a complete or perfectly accurate picture while events are unfolding.

Even those directly involved often operate with fragmented intelligence. For outside observers, the fog is exponentially thicker.

Take Everything With a Grain of Salt

In the opening hours and days of any operation, nearly all information should be treated as provisional, not definitive.

Early reports may be:

Incorrect
Incomplete
Out of context
Intentionally misleading
Based on assumptions rather than confirmation

This does not mean journalists, analysts, or observers are acting in bad faith—it means they are working inside the fog. Accuracy tends to improve with time, corroboration, and declassification, not immediacy.

Factors That Will Increase the Fog in This Conflict

Several elements are likely to intensify confusion and misinformation surrounding this operation:

1. Language Barriers

Primary-source information may emerge in Persian (Farsi), Arabic, Hebrew, or regional dialects. Nuance can be lost or distorted in translation, especially when rushed for headlines or social media.

2. Interpreters and Secondary Sources

Much of what the public receives will be filtered through interpreters, stringers, or intermediaries. Each layer adds the potential for misunderstanding or emphasis shifts.

3. Advanced Technology and Modern Warfare

Cyber operations, electronic warfare, drone activity, satellite imagery, and AI-enhanced analysis can obscure as much as they reveal. Edited clips, misidentified footage, or recycled images from past conflicts often resurface and are misattributed.

4. Information Operations (InfoOps)

All modern conflicts involve strategic messaging. Governments, state actors, and non-state groups actively shape narratives—both domestically and internationally. Some information will be released intentionally; other facts will be withheld or delayed.

5. Classified Intelligence

Some of the most consequential details—targets, objectives, intelligence sources, decision-making processes—will remain classified indefinitely. Even years from now, the full picture may never be publicly known.

Additional Things to Keep in Mind as Events Unfold

Silence does not mean failure. A lack of updates can indicate operational security, not absence of activity.
Conflicting reports are normal. Multiple accounts of the same event often differ early on.
Initial casualty figures are frequently revised—sometimes dramatically.
“Anonymous sources” should be weighed carefully, especially when echoed without independent confirmation.
Emotionally charged content spreads faster than accurate content. Viral does not equal verified.

The Timeline of Truth

While news will arrive quickly, truth moves slowly.

Days to weeks: Corrections, confirmations, and clearer sequencing of events

Months: Investigative reporting, official briefings, partial disclosures
Years: Declassified documents, memoirs, oversight reviews
Forever: Gaps that remain unknown or deliberately sealed

History shows that even well-documented conflicts still contain unanswered questions decades later. This will likely be no different.

Why This Perspective Matters

In times of tension and uncertainty, the fog of war can inflame fear, deepen polarization, and harden assumptions. Remembering its presence helps foster:

Patience over panic
Skepticism without cynicism
Awareness without misinformation

Watching events unfold responsibly does not require disengagement—it requires discernment.

As operations begin and updates accelerate, remembering the fog of war is not an act of denial. It is an acknowledgment of reality—and a safeguard against being misled by the first story rather than the true one.

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