As of January 2026, President Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is advancing aggressively in northeast Syria, capturing important locations such as Tabqa in Raqqa and crucial oil fields from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This escalation follows a failed March 2025 agreement aimed at integrating the SDF into a national army, which the Kurds rejected out of concerns for their autonomy and potential Turkish aggression. The SDF currently controls about a third of Syria east of the Euphrates, including Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, where they have battled ISIS, managed camps like Al-Hol, and fostered a diverse society that accommodates Kurds, Yazidis, and Christians.
With approximately 50,000 troops now on the move and Turkey covertly supporting HTS, viewing the SDF as linked to the PKK, the Kurds face significant threats, including violence, displacement, and territorial losses. Turkey's backing underscores HTS's extremist origins, despite al-Sharaa's assurances about minority rights. If Syria consolidates power under this administration, it could spell trouble for Israel, as a strengthened state might rekindle relations with Iran and Hezbollah, jeopardizing borders even with current agreements in place. U.S. initiatives to encourage SDF withdrawals have faltered. Immediate action is essential: providing aid, advocating for autonomy discussions, and countering Turkish interventions. Ensuring that the SDF remains in control east of the Euphrates is vital to thwarting ISIS resurgence, safeguarding minority communities, and maintaining regional stability, which is also in Israel's interest. Although a recent ceasefire suggests a glimmer of hope, its fragility means that prompt engagement is crucial to averting further turmoil.