🎯 Market Signals for 2026 According to Goldman

📊 Introduction: Finding the Signal in the Noise

As the year draws to a close, investors and curious readers are inundated with a flood of forecasts, predictions, and market commentary. The sheer volume of information can be overwhelming, making it difficult to distinguish between fleeting daily noise and the significant, structural trends that will actually shape the economic landscape in the year to come.

This post aims to cut through that noise.

We've distilled recent global market analysis to identify five of the most surprising and impactful signals that may be flying under the radar. These aren't just fleeting headlines—they're underlying shifts in data credibility, investment strategy, geopolitical cohesion, monetary policy, and financial infrastructure.

🚨 Five Surprising Signals for the Year Ahead

1️⃣ The Speedometer is Off: A Credibility Crisis in US Inflation Data

A recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report appeared to be an impressive miss on inflation at first glance, but a closer look revealed that the positive result was achieved through "extraordinary omissions and smoothing choices."

This has drawn criticism of the methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically for its apparent assumption that rent and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) were zero for the month of October.

📌 As noted in a comment retweeted by WSJ's Nick Timiraos:

"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are."

Why this matters: This raises critical questions about the accuracy of the tools used to measure the economy's health. After all, one way to let an economy "run it hot" is to effectively remove the speedometer. 🌡️

2️⃣ The AI "Space Race" Isn't About Who's Spending the Most 🚀

The massive investment cycle in Artificial Intelligence is increasingly being viewed as a modern-day "space race." However, the counter-intuitive takeaway is that the companies spending the greatest quantum of investment dollars to "win" this race face highly uncertain returns on that capital for the foreseeable future.

Where the real opportunities lie:

🔧 The Facilitators: Companies building the essential infrastructure that powers the AI revolution—compute hardware, datacenters, and the power grids that support them.

⚡ The Deployers: Companies that are successfully harnessing AI within their own businesses and can demonstrate clear, measurable productivity gains. This productivity thesis is actively being tracked through specific thematic baskets like the AI Productivity (GSXUPROD) basket.

The market is moving beyond the initial hype into what can be called the "end of the beginning" for the AI story.

3️⃣ Europe is Quietly Forging a Path to Greater Unity 🇪🇺

Amidst ongoing geopolitical challenges, a significant structural development in Europe may be getting overlooked.

European Union leaders recently reached an agreement to loan Ukraine €90 billion ($106 billion) for the next two years, funded through joint debt raised on the capital markets and backed by the bloc's collective budget.

Why this is profound: This reinforces that joint issuance in response to major crises is becoming a persistent, repeatable feature for Europe, not a one-off measure.

This growing "structural cohesion" is a fundamentally bullish sign for the region. While challenges remain, this deepening financial integration demonstrates an increasing unity and resilience that could be a powerful economic driver. 💪

4️⃣ Japan's Multi-Decade Financial Slumber is Officially Over 🇯🇵

A monumental shift is underway in the world's fourth-largest economy.

The Japan 10-year bond yield is breaking out above 2%—a level it hasn't seen since the late 1990s. This marks a definitive end to the country's decades-long era of near-zero interest rates and deflationary pressures.

The counter-intuitive signals:

📈 The entire yield curve is moving higher and bear steepening
💴 Yet the yen is weakening
📊 While Japanese equities (led by banks and construction) are rising

This price action suggests a market that believes the BOJ is still "behind the curve"—a dynamic with massive ripple effects for global capital flows as an era of ultra-cheap money in Japan fundamentally changes.

5️⃣ Crypto's Real Story Isn't Price—It's Plumbing 🔧

While public attention on digital assets often fixates on daily price volatility, the more impactful and lasting story is the quiet, steady development of institutional-grade infrastructure.

Major, established financial players are actively building the "plumbing" for a future where digital assets are integrated into mainstream finance:

✅ Visa launched stablecoin settlement in the US, leveraging USDC on the Solana network

✅ Brazil's largest bank began recommending a 3% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin for "real diversification"

✅ JP Morgan launched a tokenized money-market fund on the Ethereum blockchain

These moves signal a maturation of the digital asset space. The focus is shifting from speculative trading to the foundational work of building reliable, scalable systems. This behind-the-scenes development is the real signal of the industry's long-term trajectory. 💎

🔮 Conclusion: Looking Ahead

The daily churn of market headlines often obscures the more powerful, underlying structural shifts that are truly shaping our economic future.

From questionable inflation data in the US to historic policy changes in Japan and Europe, these less-obvious signals demand our attention.

Question for the community: As these hidden currents gather strength, which one do you think will ultimately reshape the economic landscape of 2026 the most? 👇

Drop your thoughts in the comments below! 💬

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