Bitcoin Weekly SMA200 Pattern – Potential Cycle Top Signal?

Hi all. I recently came across an article that discussed an interesting historical pattern on Bitcoin’s long-term chart. In every major cycle so far, the cycle top tended to occur once the 200week SMA reached the price level of the previous cycle’s all-time high. This dynamic appeared in the transitions from the 2013 cycle to 2017 and again from 2017 to 2021, where the cycle peak happened around the time the weekly SMA200 climbed up to the old ATH. Applying that same idea to the current cycle, the previous top sits around 66k, while the weekly SMA200 is currently near 55k and still trending upward. If the historical pattern were to repeat, the area around 66k could potentially act as the next cycle top once the SMA200 reaches it. Of course, there’s no guarantee this plays out the same way again, but it might be one more indicator worth keeping in mind when thinking about where this cycle could eventually peak.

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