Whats happening in the Multifamily Market?
What’s closing (and who’s active): - Institutional & large operators are selectively buying core/“brown-to-green” value-add in top metros (esp. Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix) at recalibrated pricing. Recent examples include Waterton acquiring a 263-unit high-rise in Chicago’s Fulton Market and Cortland upping its stake in Buckhead; other names showing up in 2025 deal sheets: Nuveen, Jamestown, Penler. Bisnow+1 - Affordable/mission-driven capital is acquiring portfolios as sellers rebalance. National Equity Fund (NEF) and Guardian Real Estate Services bought a 2,700-unit portfolio from GSL for ~$444M—flagging real demand for LIHTC/affordable. Bisnow - Supply is finally cooling in 2025–2026 after record 2024 completions; completions are down YoY nationally, which supports a firmer pricing floor for stabilized assets later in 2025/2026. (Houston example: completions down ~38%; nationwide completions projected -21% vs. 2024.) Axios - Agencies remain the liquidity backstop. FHFA set 2025 caps at $73B each for Fannie and Freddie ($146B total), which continues to grease trades for qualifying business plans (affordable, mission-driven, and green). FHFA.gov+2FHFA.gov+2 Seller & distress signals you can target - Large 2019–2022 bridge borrowers facing rate caps expiring / refi gaps; many are motivated to sell or JV. Special servicing in CMBS is still elevated (~10% overall), and maturity/refi pressure remains a theme through 2026. Multi-Housing News+1 - Developers with 2023–2024 lease-ups in heavy-supply submarkets (Sun Belt, Texas Triangle) where negative leverage persists—prime for recap/JV or a stabilization sale. Macro reads (Yardi Matrix) point to tepid rent growth with supply digestion, creating motivation to transact. Yardi Matrix+2Yardi+2 - Non-core dispositions by institutions (trimming overweight Sun Belt exposure; rotating to Midwest or to affordable/workforce strategies). Recent deal sheets show exactly these trims and rotations. Bisnow