Oct 15 • General discussion
Whats happening in the Multifamily Market?
What’s closing (and who’s active):
- Institutional & large operators are selectively buying core/“brown-to-green” value-add in top metros (esp. Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix) at recalibrated pricing. Recent examples include Waterton acquiring a 263-unit high-rise in Chicago’s Fulton Market and Cortland upping its stake in Buckhead; other names showing up in 2025 deal sheets: Nuveen, Jamestown, Penler. Bisnow+1
- Affordable/mission-driven capital is acquiring portfolios as sellers rebalance. National Equity Fund (NEF) and Guardian Real Estate Services bought a 2,700-unit portfolio from GSL for ~$444M—flagging real demand for LIHTC/affordable. Bisnow
- Supply is finally cooling in 2025–2026 after record 2024 completions; completions are down YoY nationally, which supports a firmer pricing floor for stabilized assets later in 2025/2026. (Houston example: completions down ~38%; nationwide completions projected -21% vs. 2024.) Axios
- Agencies remain the liquidity backstop. FHFA set 2025 caps at $73B each for Fannie and Freddie ($146B total), which continues to grease trades for qualifying business plans (affordable, mission-driven, and green). FHFA.gov+2FHFA.gov+2
Seller & distress signals you can target
- Large 2019–2022 bridge borrowers facing rate caps expiring / refi gaps; many are motivated to sell or JV. Special servicing in CMBS is still elevated (~10% overall), and maturity/refi pressure remains a theme through 2026. Multi-Housing News+1
- Developers with 2023–2024 lease-ups in heavy-supply submarkets (Sun Belt, Texas Triangle) where negative leverage persists—prime for recap/JV or a stabilization sale. Macro reads (Yardi Matrix) point to tepid rent growth with supply digestion, creating motivation to transact. Yardi Matrix+2Yardi+2
- Non-core dispositions by institutions (trimming overweight Sun Belt exposure; rotating to Midwest or to affordable/workforce strategies). Recent deal sheets show exactly these trims and rotations. Bisnow
Patterns & similarities among 2025 buyers/sellers (from recent public deal sheets & research)
- Buyers: well-capitalized operators/institutions (Waterton, Cortland, Nuveen, Jamestown, Penler), mission capital (NEF/Guardian), and opportunistic value-add funds—all favoring assets with clear operational upside or regulatory/agency leverage. Bisnow+1
- Sellers: syndicators/bridge borrowers under cap pressure, developers rotating capital out of lease-ups, institutional reallocators pruning non-core. Distress and special-servicing trends reinforce this cohort. Multi-Housing News
- Financing/close-ability: agency executions (mission/green), assumption opportunities, or structured capital (pref/JV) to bridge the valuation gap—these show up repeatedly in closings and capital stacks. FHFA.gov+1
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Whats happening in the Multifamily Market?
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