Monthly Overview for the month of December 2025 - Use This Plan All Month! December 2025 Trading Playbook – Daily Swing Setups & Macro-Aligned Opportunities Macro Backdrop & Seasonality Trends December 2025 opens against a complex macro backdrop. The Federal Reserve’s last rate hike was in mid-2023, placing late 2024 through end-2025 in a known vulnerability window for markets. Recession signals linger – the yield curve remains inverted and corporate bond spreads have started widening – suggesting caution even as equities hover near highs. At the same time, we are entering Year 2 of the U.S. presidential cycle (2026), which is historically the weakest year for stocks. All these factors align 2025–2026 as a potential high-volatility zone where surprises (economic downturns, credit events, or geopolitical shocks) could quickly roil markets.

Thanksgiving Mindset Reminders Preview mindset document shared in the mastermind for the week.

Thanksgiving Week - High Volatility Expected 📅 November 23-29, 2025 🟢 Thanksgiving Week Best Seasonality TG Wednesday has best return since 1997. Second-best seasonal edge of the year 🔴 VIX Up 4 Weeks in a Row VIX has done this 34 times since 1990. 10 times VIX closed higher the next week, giving 70% edge 🔴 Trump Considering Selling Nvidia H200 Chips to China Major shift in export controls and trade relations if approved 🟢 Job Market Pessimism Highest Since 1980s 76% of US consumers expect unemployment over next 12 months - extreme negative sentiment 🔴 Bitcoin Drops from $126k to $89k 25% crash as AI startups hold $25.8B in Bitcoin as collateral, forcing $23B in Bitcoin sales 🟡 No Fed Speakers This Week No FOMC meetings, no Fed speakers - cleaner tape without Powell commentary 🟢 Mean Reversion Setup After Thursday Reversal Thursday's 3.5% intraday reversal caught everyone off-guard. AVG return 3 weeks out = +13% 🟡 27 Leveraged 3x & 5x Single Stock ETFs Filed AMD, AMZN, COIN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, PLTR, TSLA and more - volatility explosion coming 🟡 U.S. Watching Venezuela, Attempting to Overthrow Government New phase of operations targeting Venezuela. Timing and scope unclear; rising tensions with President Nicolas Maduro's government

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💰 BITCOIN & CRYPTOCURRENCY COMPLETE OUTLOOK Current Price: $110,000-$112,000 Primary Thesis: Bullish above $111-112K weekly support. Critical $115K breakout level approaching. Institutional accumulation pattern visible. 🎯 Critical Bitcoin Levels · MUST HOLD: $111,000-$112,000 (weekly support - invalidation below) · BREAKOUT TRIGGER: $115,000 (daily close above = bullish confirmation) · Target 1: $120,000 (+7% from $112K - first major take-profit) · Target 2: $122,000-$125,000 (+11% from $112K - extended rally target) · Extended Target: $130,000 (December projection) · INVALIDATION: Below $111K = Retest $105-108K likely