A liveable future, or will civilisation disappear ?
I’ve said before that, even though I sometimes find intricate details fascinating, I tend to be more fascinated by a ‘big picture’. I doubt there could be a much bigger view than the one described by Richard Heinberg, in his Resilience post at - https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024-11-21/envisioning-a-livable-future/ (Link now OK, following Tony's correction of it, below) His Post asks three questions about the potential for a liveable future - 1) What would have to change? 2) What would a sustainable society look like? 3) How do we get there? It opens with a quote from Sir David King, former chief scientific advisor to the UK Government, who says “On our present psth, civilisation as we know it will disappear.” Heinberg continues, saying “Sadly, most people fail to understand the seriousness of our predicament.”. And a predicament it surely is, as Heinberg briefly summarises. He uses the I = P A T model, developed by Paul Ehrlich in the early 1970s, where - Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology The words ‘affluence’ and ‘technology’ sound descriptive and neutral enough, yet I’m disturbed by what they don’t say, by what those words seem to let slip. I’d modify them as - Affluence - a range of circumstances from comfort in moderation to material and behavioural rapacity. Technology - a range from to ingenious thrift to exploitative rapacity. I think Heinberg says much the same, in his detailed dissection, but without using the word ‘rapacity’. His worst-case outcome could hardly be worse - "…we will arrive at a post-industrial future via catastrophe and suffering. Nature will break down to the point where it can no longer support the existing human population. Human social systems will implode amid a mad scramble for power and survival. Our species may not outlive this unraveling.". Of the many alternative outcomes, he describes just one, that he calls 'a gentler path'. He has little hope of it being reached, saying "If humanity were going to take the gentler path, it would have had to start decades ago.". Instead, in both politics, finance and big business he sees what he calls 'the rejection of moderation'.