🔎 Global Context - Trend: D1 uptrend; price well above EMA200 (white) → structural bullish bias. - Event: M15 breakout spike with volume (Wyckoff SOS). We now expect the LPS/backup into the breakout block. 🔍 Confluence Map - Wyckoff: SOS → buy the LPS back into the last bearish candle before the impulse. - Smart Money: Demand zone overlaps 3,353–3,359. - Fib of 3332→3378: 50% ≈ 3355, 38.2% ≈ 3360 (inside entry box). - Dynamics: EMA200 ≈ 3,353 “catch-up” + Donchian trend flipping support; watch 8/21 EMA (orange/blue) bullish hold on the dip. skool for more] 📈 Trade Parameters - Entry: 3,353 – 3,359 (first touch or rejection wick). - Stop-Loss: 3,332 (beneath M15 base & liquidity shelf). Take Profit Targets: - TP1: 3,378 (spike high) — scale partial; move SL→BE after close above. - TP2: 3,392 (1.27 ext./momentum). - TP3: 3,416 (measured move; primary take-profit). - (Stretch 3R marker ≈ 3,428 if momentum accelerates.) Risk/Reward (mid 3,356): - Risk = 24 to 3,332. - TP2 = +36 → 1:1.5; TP3 = +60 → 1:2.5 ✅. ✅ Execution Checklist - ⏳ Wait for price to retest 3,353–3,359. - 🧭 Candle signal: bullish rejection/engulfing closing above EMA200. - 🔁 8 EMA > 21 EMA and holding on the pullback. - 📊 Breakout volume not collapsing (no heavy sell-delta at the level). - 🚫 Do not chase if the retest fails; no long on a clean M15 close below 3,332. 🧯 Management & Contingencies - Risk per trade: 0.5–1.0%. - After TP1, SL→BE; after TP2, trail beneath the 8 EMA or last M5 HL. - Shallow retest scenario (3,360–3,363): keep invalidation at 3,332; - conservative alt.: wait for a higher low (~3,346–3,350), then re-define size so final RRR ≥ 1:2.5 to 3,416. Trade Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High-probability if the retest holds above EMA200 + 8/21 confirmation) ⚠️ Trading involves risk. Always manage exposure and trade responsibly. 💬 What do you think of this setup? Drop your analysis below! 👇

Big Picture - Gaza conflict fuels safe-haven bids in gold and USD. - Alaska peace talks could shake crude oil and defense stocks. - China’s deflation and exports mix signals for commodities and growth. Key Levels Support: Gold: 3,380 Brent oil: 65.0 WTI oil: 62.5 Energy ETF (XLE): 84.0 DXY (US dollar index): 99.5 Defense ETF (EIS): 87.5 Resistance: Gold: 3,450 Brent oil: 67.5 WTI oil: 64.5 Energy ETF (XLE): 86.0 DXY: 100.0 Defense ETF (EIS): 89.0 What Could Move Price (If/Then) - If Gaza tensions escalate → risk-off → gold and USD up; EM assets down. - If Alaska talks firm → crude oil dips; defense stocks weaken. - If US CPI is soft → growth and bonds favored; metals and energy pressured. - If China deflation dominates → bonds/growth favored; mixed impact on commodities. Technical Read Gold trades in a range 3,390–3,450. Above 3,450 means momentum up; below 3,380 signals risk-off. Brent oil is near 66.4; above 67.5 opens a move to 70, below 65 tests lower support. WTI stays firm above 64.5; breaks 62.5 to test 61. Energy ETF XLE breaks 86.0 then fades; breaking 84.0 means risk-off mode. DXY above 100 signals headwinds for risk assets; below 99.5 eases pressure. Setups 🟢 Long #1 — Brent Oil Squeeze - Trigger: Price closes above 67.5. - Entry: 67.5–67.6 zone. - SL: 66.4 - TP: 70.0 - R:R: About 1:4 (high reward if holds). - Why this works: Break above key resistance signals short squeeze and momentum. - Invalidate: Close back below 66.4. 🟢 Long #2 — Gold Range Bounce - Trigger: Price holds 3,380–3,390 with SMI (momentum strength gauge) uptick. - Entry: Around 3,385. - SL: 3,365 - TP: 3,410 / 3,445–3,450 - R:R: Approx 1:1.5 / 1:3.7 - Why: Range support confirmed; safe haven demand rising with geopolitical risks. - Invalidate: Close below 3,365. 🔴 Short #1 — XLE Fade - Trigger: Fails at 86.0 resistance, bearish momentum. - Entry: ~85.9 - SL: 86.5 - TP: 84.0 / 83.0 - R:R: ~1:2 - Why: Resistance cap proven; risk-off pressure returns. - Invalidate: Close above 86.5.

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