Aug '25 • General discussion
Week1: Gold steady 3,390–3,450; oil eyes $67.5; watch Gaza, Alaska, and CPI headlines.
Big Picture
- Gaza conflict fuels safe-haven bids in gold and USD.
- Alaska peace talks could shake crude oil and defense stocks.
- China’s deflation and exports mix signals for commodities and growth.
Key Levels
Support:
Gold: 3,380
Brent oil: 65.0
WTI oil: 62.5
Energy ETF (XLE): 84.0
DXY (US dollar index): 99.5
Defense ETF (EIS): 87.5
Resistance:
Gold: 3,450
Brent oil: 67.5
WTI oil: 64.5
Energy ETF (XLE): 86.0
DXY: 100.0
Defense ETF (EIS): 89.0
What Could Move Price (If/Then)
- If Gaza tensions escalate → risk-off → gold and USD up; EM assets down.
- If Alaska talks firm → crude oil dips; defense stocks weaken.
- If US CPI is soft → growth and bonds favored; metals and energy pressured.
- If China deflation dominates → bonds/growth favored; mixed impact on commodities.
Technical Read
Gold trades in a range 3,390–3,450. Above 3,450 means momentum up; below 3,380 signals risk-off.
Brent oil is near 66.4; above 67.5 opens a move to 70, below 65 tests lower support.
WTI stays firm above 64.5; breaks 62.5 to test 61.
Energy ETF XLE breaks 86.0 then fades; breaking 84.0 means risk-off mode.
DXY above 100 signals headwinds for risk assets; below 99.5 eases pressure.
Setups
🟢 Long #1 — Brent Oil Squeeze
- Trigger: Price closes above 67.5.
- Entry: 67.5–67.6 zone.
- SL: 66.4
- TP: 70.0
- R:R: About 1:4 (high reward if holds).
- Why this works: Break above key resistance signals short squeeze and momentum.
- Invalidate: Close back below 66.4.
🟢 Long #2 — Gold Range Bounce
- Trigger: Price holds 3,380–3,390 with SMI (momentum strength gauge) uptick.
- Entry: Around 3,385.
- SL: 3,365
- TP: 3,410 / 3,445–3,450
- R:R: Approx 1:1.5 / 1:3.7
- Why: Range support confirmed; safe haven demand rising with geopolitical risks.
- Invalidate: Close below 3,365.
🔴 Short #1 — XLE Fade
- Trigger: Fails at 86.0 resistance, bearish momentum.
- Entry: ~85.9
- SL: 86.5
- TP: 84.0 / 83.0
- R:R: ~1:2
- Why: Resistance cap proven; risk-off pressure returns.
- Invalidate: Close above 86.5.
Risk Tips
- Risk ≤1% per trade.
- Wait for clear trigger signals before entering.
Quick Glossary
- SMI: Momentum strength gauge.
- DXY: US dollar index.
- SL: Stop loss (max risk exit price).
- TP: Take profit (target price).
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Week1: Gold steady 3,390–3,450; oil eyes $67.5; watch Gaza, Alaska, and CPI headlines.
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