Aug '25 • General discussion
🟢 XAUUSD · M15 — “Retest the Launchpad (Post-Spike LPS)”
🔎 Global Context
- Trend: D1 uptrend; price well above EMA200 (white) → structural bullish bias.
- Event: M15 breakout spike with volume (Wyckoff SOS). We now expect the LPS/backup into the breakout block.
🔍 Confluence Map
- Wyckoff: SOS → buy the LPS back into the last bearish candle before the impulse.
- Smart Money: Demand zone overlaps 3,353–3,359.
- Fib of 3332→3378: 50% ≈ 3355, 38.2% ≈ 3360 (inside entry box).
- Dynamics: EMA200 ≈ 3,353 “catch-up” + Donchian trend flipping support; watch 8/21 EMA (orange/blue) bullish hold on the dip.
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📈 Trade Parameters
- Entry: 3,353 – 3,359 (first touch or rejection wick).
- Stop-Loss: 3,332 (beneath M15 base & liquidity shelf).
Take Profit Targets:
- TP1: 3,378 (spike high) — scale partial; move SL→BE after close above.
- TP2: 3,392 (1.27 ext./momentum).
- TP3: 3,416 (measured move; primary take-profit).
- (Stretch 3R marker ≈ 3,428 if momentum accelerates.)
Risk/Reward (mid 3,356):
- Risk = 24 to 3,332.
- TP2 = +36 → 1:1.5; TP3 = +60 → 1:2.5 ✅.
✅ Execution Checklist
- ⏳ Wait for price to retest 3,353–3,359.
- 🧭 Candle signal: bullish rejection/engulfing closing above EMA200.
- 🔁 8 EMA > 21 EMA and holding on the pullback.
- 📊 Breakout volume not collapsing (no heavy sell-delta at the level).
- 🚫 Do not chase if the retest fails; no long on a clean M15 close below 3,332.
🧯 Management & Contingencies
- Risk per trade: 0.5–1.0%.
- After TP1, SL→BE; after TP2, trail beneath the 8 EMA or last M5 HL.
- Shallow retest scenario (3,360–3,363): keep invalidation at 3,332;
- conservative alt.: wait for a higher low (~3,346–3,350), then re-define size so final RRR ≥ 1:2.5 to 3,416.
Trade Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (High-probability if the retest holds above EMA200 + 8/21 confirmation)
⚠️ Trading involves risk. Always manage exposure and trade responsibly.
💬 What do you think of this setup? Drop your analysis below! 👇
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🟢 XAUUSD · M15 — “Retest the Launchpad (Post-Spike LPS)”
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