4th of July Spot via Freightwaves
A seasonal rally in dry van spot market linehaul rates continues leading up to the Fourth of July, according to the SONAR National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only). NTIL rose 5 cents per mile in the past week from $1.70 on June 23 to $1.75 per mile. Linehaul rates are now at the same level as last month, where the NTIL was at $1.70 on June 1. Fuel costs are based on the average retail price of diesel fuel and fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – (DTS.USA/6.5). Compared to the last two years, linehaul rates have more ground to gain, leading up to July 4. One reason being is NTIL having risen more during the Memorial Day weekend than previous years. Looking upstream to contract rates shows a more favorable pricing power environment for truckload carriers. Dry van outbound tender rejection rates remain elevated based on y/y comps. VOTRI at 7.61% is 116 basis points higher than 2024, where van outbound tender rejection rates were at 6.45%. When looking at now compared to 2023, VOTRI is 386 bps higher versus 3.75%. One question that remains following the Fourth of July holiday is the impact of English Language Proficiency enforcement. While it’s too early to tell what the numbers will be following its rollout on June 25th, Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at FTR Transportation Intelligence gave some numbers regarding the last time ELP rules placed truckers out of service using data from 2013 to 2014. Vise wrote in May, “CVSA noted when it dropped ELP as an OOS violation that 83,000 ELP violations were cited in 2013, of which 3,700 were OOS violations. FTR identified nearly 100,700 ELP violations in 2014 – the final year before CVSA dropped ELP as an OOS violation. Of those violations, more than 3,900 were OOS violations.”