Just analyzed the macro setup and here's what's shaping up for Bitcoin and digital assets: The Government Shutdown Wild Card 🏛️ Polymarket is currently betting the shutdown won't end until mid-November 📅. While this adds a layer of uncertainty to markets, it's actually setting up an interesting dynamic for Bitcoin. Once this uncertainty clears, we could see risk assets catch a bid again 🚀. The Global Money Printer is Warming Up 💸 Here's the real story that matters for us in DeFi - over the next 6-18 months, every major central bank has no choice but to print: • The Fed 🇺🇸 - Will continue monetizing deficit spending (as they have since 2008) • ECB 🇪🇺 - Same playbook in Europe • PBoC 🇨🇳 - China's already ramping up stimulus • Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 - New PM talking about social programs = more deficit spending = more printing Japan's situation is particularly interesting 👀. The BoJ already owns half their bond market (!), and with their new leadership pushing for more spending, the yen carry trade could become even more profitable. Translation: Traders borrow cheap yen → buy Bitcoin 💹. Bitcoin Technical Setup 📊 The correction from $126k to $110k hasn't broken the bull market structure: - Critical support at 50-week MA held perfectly ✅ during the recent test - Even the flash crash to $102k couldn't break the uptrend 💪 - Pattern remains intact for a move back above $126k 📈 My take: I'm a buyer at these levels 🛒. Would need to see the 50-week MA decisively broken to turn bearish, and we're nowhere near that. ETH vs BTC Allocation ⚖️ While ETH is sitting at trend line support with its 50-week MA, the pattern isn't as clean as Bitcoin's. If I had to pick one asset for allocation right now, it's BTC all day 🥇. That said, when Bitcoin eventually breaks to new ATHs above $126k, it'll pull the entire altcoin complex higher with it 🌊. That's when we'd likely see Bitcoin dominance roll over and alts outperform 🔄. The Bottom Line 🎯 The macro setup is clear: Central banks globally have no option but to debase their currencies 🖨️. In this environment, Bitcoin's trajectory over the next 2, 6, 12, and 18 months is UP ⬆️.

ETH just broke above the descending wedge at $4,450, but here's the catch: BULLISH CASE ✅ Clean break above wedge resistance, pattern typically resolves upward, holding the breakout level so far BEARISH CASE ❌ Still below SMA 200 at $4,565 (key resistance), no retest yet, broader downtrend context THE VERDICT: 50/50 odds right now 🤷 Watch these levels: Hold above $4,400 = Bullish continuation likely 📈 Break above $4,565 (SMA 200) = Confirmed breakout, target $4,700+ Fall below $4,350 = False breakout confirmed 📉 Next 4-8 hours are critical. No conviction yet, needs follow-through with volume. I'm net short small right now and I wonder if there are any DeFi U members who would want to make a market on Polymarket for this ETH breakout.

Hey DeFi University Skool Community! 👋 David here, your speaker breaking down this video segment (37:59-43:09) on advanced LP strategies from our Portfolio Clinic live call earlier today. 📊 Strategy Overview I explain how to create a positive net interest margin (NIM) for indefinite holds using: - Supply wstETH to money markets (earn more than borrow cost) - Borrow ETH against your collateral - Deploy into Uniswap LP (equidistant, 50/50 with stablecoin) Key Benefits: ✅ Hedges downside - End up with more ETH if price drops, pocket difference post-repay ✅ IL protection on rebalances ✅ Net long exposure on upside due to over-collateralization ✅ Generates cash flow while managing volatility 🎯 Example from Video 1. Supply 3 ETH to Aave 2. Borrow 2 ETH (positive NIM if supply APY > borrow APY) 3. Swap 50% of borrowed ETH to stablecoin 4. Enter LP with 50/50 ratio Outcome Scenarios: - Downside: Out-of-range position gives >2 ETH to repay = profit - Upside: LP deltas drop to 0, but you're long the supply-borrow delta (1 ETH net) - No rebalancing fear - Small IL hedge built-in Jane's clarification: Yes, swap 50% borrowed ETH to stable for 50/50 LP entry 📈 Current Market Data (As of July 23, 2025) Asset Prices: - ETH: ~$3,562-$3,763 USD Down slightly from $3,749 close Volatile amid ETF flows - BTC: ~$118,000-$120,000 USD Trading around $117,994 After peaking at $120,026 Aave ETH Rates (Ethereum Mainnet): - Supply APY: ~2.79% - Borrow APY: Variable ~3.46% - Note: Recent surges to 10%+ on borrows due to mass unstaking/withdrawals 💡 Why This Strategy Shines in DeFi This approach offers risk-managed leverage perfect for current conditions: - Positive NIM enables perpetual positions - IL hedges reduce downside pain in stable-paired LPs - Ideal for bull runs like ETH's current trajectory - Generate fees/cash flow without full exposure - Balanced alternative to spot holds in high volatility 💬 Let's Discuss! Reply below or in chat with your thoughts on: