Inflation 6%, expected 6%. Market rally
As Fed stepped in to save the market (people deposits in Silicon Valley Bank - see my previous post), the inflation year over year for the month of Feb is 6%, which the forecast was 6% as well. This leads to a market rally. While we were discussing potentially how to short the market in Investing Accelerator, the market quickly turnaround and limited any shorting / hedging opportunities. This is good as I am overall bullish for the market. Fed bails out will help most of the long term portfolio to grow in the coming months. Next week will be a week of interest rate increase announcement. Previously Goldman Sachs forecast Fed to increase rate by 0.25% Given that Fed is bailing these banks, now the traders are expecting an overall 0.5% to 0.75% interest rate CUT for this year. For the March interest rate meeting, my forecast would be no interest rate increase which will lead to a further market rally. What do you think? Cheers, Eric Seto, CPA CIM