14d • 🚨 Live Trades
My Highest Conviction Position Trades Right Now
A member asked me if the ADBE setup is valid again. Honestly — no. I don't like the market structure on it right now. But it made me realize I should share the names I actually DO like.
These are my favorite setups and highest conviction position trades as of today. Two I'm already in, one I'm building a plan for.
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MSFT (Microsoft) — Long — Active Position
Been on the watchlist multiple times. Nothing has changed. Demand is holding.
HTF demand at 355-395. Institutional buyers stepped in here and price has tested this zone repeatedly without weakness. Key levels at 350 and 387.
Technically strong. Fundamentally strong. Volume profile strong. One of my favorite setups out here. Mag 7.
⚡ EXECUTION PACKAGE
Entry Zone: 355-395 (HTF demand — positioned from this zone)
Stop: Below 355 (acceptance below invalidates)
T1: 455
T2: Above 455 (structural targets developing)
Risk: 0.5% of account
Conviction: 8/10 — No weakness at demand despite multiple tests. Technically, fundamentally, and volume profile all aligned. Patience play — needs catalyst.
📋 GAME PLAN
IF price shows strength from here → targeting 455+
IF price holds without strength → patience, stay in, stop honored
IF acceptance below 355 → thesis invalidated, full exit
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GRAB — Long — Active Position (DCA)
Super key level at $4. Just look at what this chart has done at this price historically.
Multi-year accumulation between October 2024 and September 2025. Price broke out. Now retesting the origin of that breakout demand at 3.36-4.20.
Started DCA'ing into this one. Fundamentals are very strong. Price is at the value area low on the volume profile — 70% of volume sits above. Institutions agree fair value is at least around $5.
The price action is telling. October 2025 had aggressive, inefficient selling. Now? Barely any selling pressure. Every downswing is getting smaller. Compression. That's accumulation.
⚡ EXECUTION PACKAGE
Entry Zone: 3.36-4.20 (HTF demand — DCA in progress)
Stop: Below 3.36 (acceptance below invalidates)
T1: 5.00 (value area low — institutional fair value)
T2: 6.50 (prior breakout high)
Risk: 0.5% of account
Conviction: 7.5/10 — Clean demand + compression + strong fundamentals. Waiting for daily structure shift to confirm.
📋 GAME PLAN
IF price holds within demand and compression continues → continue DCA
IF price breaks above 4.20 with volume → add on strength
IF acceptance below 3.36 → thesis invalidated, exit all
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NOW (ServiceNow) — Watching — DCA Zone
Not in this one yet. On my radar for a slow DCA entry.
Price dipped into HTF demand at 70-98 — this was the origin that pushed price all the way to 240. Full retrace on the daily. Looks like it's forming a base.
Rough demand area between 98-110. Hard to pinpoint exactly so I'm marking it wide. Be slow in this name — the base isn't perfectly clean yet.
⚡ EXECUTION PACKAGE
Entry Zone: 98-110 (DCA area — scale in slowly)
Stop: Acceptance below 70 (full HTF demand break)
T1: Developing
T2: Developing
Risk: Position trade sizing — smaller than typical swing
Conviction: 6.5-7/10 — Structure is there and origin demand is significant, but base needs more time to prove itself.
📋 GAME PLAN
IF price holds above 98 and base builds → slow DCA in this zone
IF price breaks below 98 → pause, wait for reaction at 70-level demand
IF acceptance below 70 → thesis invalidated, exit all
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📊 FUNDAMENTAL SCORING
I posted a full S&P 500 fundamental scoring breakdown in the classroom. The number to pay attention to is the Confidence Score.
V1 (Core) — Growth momentum, moat quality, downside protection, sentiment. Finds quality compounders already working. Bull market engine. 1-100.
V2 (Outlier) — Inflection signals, moat durability, balance sheet strength, contrarian sentiment. Catches names where narrative is negative but fundamentals are inflecting. Bear market engine. 1-100.
Confidence Score blends both using regime-adjusted weights + valuation adjustment + sector modifiers. One number, 0-100, driving position sizing. Cross-sector validated: 94.4% actionable accuracy. 121x profit factor. 33 stocks, 11 sectors, 193 observations (2019-2024).
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These are all position trades. Patience plays. If you're watching any of these — drop your plan below. I'll review your levels.
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My Highest Conviction Position Trades Right Now
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