ADBE — Cautiously Bullish — Position
- Bias: Bullish only while price holds above 278
- Timeframe: Swing / Position (Daily / HTF)
- Zone I’m Watching: 278–297 (HTF Demand)
- Invalidation (Line in the Sand): Acceptance below 278
- My Rule: No chase. I only care how price reacts inside the zone.
CONTEXT (WHY THIS ZONE MATTERS)
In the prior update, 311–334 demand failed, which confirms that zone is no longer supportive and has now contributed to new supply overhead. Price is currently sitting inside higher-timeframe demand at 278–297, which is the origin that previously launched price to the 640 area.
This is the last major demand that needs to hold for the bullish thesis to stay alive. That said, broader weekly market structure is weak, so this zone requires caution and proof, not blind buying.
KEY LEVELS & ZONES
- Key Line (Line in the Sand): 278
- HTF Demand (Critical): 278–297
- Broken Demand (Now Failed): 311–334
- New Supply (Overhead): 343–360
- Major Prior Expansion High: ~640 (context only)
GAME PLAN (IF → THEN)
- IF price holds and shows strength inside 278–297 → THEN the bullish position thesis remains valid.
- IF buyers fail to defend this zone → THEN I’m not interested in longs; structure is compromised.
- IF price rebounds but stalls near 343–360 → THEN expect selling pressure from new supply.
- IF price reclaims acceptance above broken structure → THEN confidence improves, but patience is still required.
- IF price chops with weak reactions → THEN I wait. No forcing trades.
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ADBE — Cautiously Bullish — Position
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