Kevin Warsh was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on Tuesday in a 51-45 Senate vote, with a second vote to confirm him as Fed Chair expected Wednesday, May 13 — replacing Jerome Powell, whose term ends Friday, May 15. Warsh inherits a challenging environment on day one: April's CPI came in at 3.8% annually, the highest since May 2023, with bond markets now pricing in roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a rate hike by year-end. Warsh has publicly called for "regime change" at the Fed, advocating for less communication, a smaller balance sheet, and lower benchmark rates over time — but the inflation data he's walking into puts those goals in direct tension with economic reality. His first FOMC meeting as chair is June 16–17, which will be the first real signal of how he intends to navigate that conflict. For real estate professionals, the rate-setting chain hasn't changed: inflation pressure drives Treasury yields, Treasury yields drive nationally reported mortgage rates — and Warsh's confirmation changes who's deciding how to respond, not the direction of the forces at play. Have a great one! Poll below!👇 -John Kevin Warsh is now Fed Chair. Are you optimistic about rates in the next 6 months?

Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the 17th Federal Reserve Chair on May 13th — and today, Jerome Powell's eight-year run officially ends. Warsh's first rate-setting meeting is June 16–17, and he walks in with April CPI at 3.8%, wholesale prices up 6%, and a roughly 30% market probability of a rate hike by December. Here's what the headlines aren't saying: home prices rose in 71% of U.S. metros in Q1, April showings were up 8% year over year, and purchase applications beat last year's levels for the second straight week. The honest read from economists this week — buyers are feeling the squeeze, and the housing market may remain a casualty of the Iran conflict until it resolves. The floor is holding, the ceiling is still there, and the agents who stay positioned now will be the ones who look back on this spring and say that was the moment. Have a great weekend everyone! -John

Make sure you use it! Most agents scroll the news and feel vaguely informed. You're here to do something different — to actually understand what market shifts mean, how to talk about them confidently, and how to use that knowledge to win more clients and close more deals. This community is your unfair advantage. Here's how to get started: 1. Introduce yourself- Drop your name, where you're located, and one thing you want to get better at. We're a community — say hi. 2. Watch the market update- Each one breaks down what's actually happening in the market — and what to do with it. 3. Show up and share- Ask questions. Share wins. Post what you're seeing in your market. The more you put in, the more you get out. The agents winning right now aren't the ones waiting for the market to calm down. They're the ones who understand it — and know how to talk about it. That's exactly what we build here. Glad you're here. Now let's get to work.

Three data points this week paint the clearest picture yet of the spring 2026 housing market. Purchase mortgage applications rose 4% week-over-week and 7% year-over-year — even as rates hit a five-week high — signaling that today's active buyers have accepted the current rate environment and are moving anyway. Yet per NAR's Lawrence Yun, the spring season as a whole is not outperforming last year, because the war disruption hit after the early momentum had already built. The single variable holding rates above 6% is the Iran conflict — not the Fed, not consumer sentiment — and per loanDepot's chief economist, a credible path toward Middle East resolution and more normal oil flow is what it would take to move rates meaningfully lower. The buyers accumulating in the market right now are positioned to be first through the door when that ceiling lifts — and the agents ready for them will win. Have a great Thursday! -John

This week is one of the most consequential macro setups for mortgage rates in years — three major events land before Friday. Tuesday's April CPI report will show whether inflation eased or stayed hot (directly moving Treasury yields and rates). Sometime this week, Kevin Warsh is expected to face his full Senate confirmation vote as the next Fed Chair — analysts describe his stance as more inclined to cut rates, but bond markets may push yields higher if he cuts aggressively while inflation is still elevated. And Friday, Jerome Powell's eight-year tenure officially ends. Meanwhile, the housing market is functioning: inventory is up 2.3% year-over-year, new pending sales are up 10.7%, and 80% of buyers are actively purchasing. This week's data will either confirm or reshape that trajectory. 👇 Quick poll — what are you watching most closely this week? Have a great week everyone! -John