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16h •
Consumer Confidence Just Made Its Biggest Two-Month Jump in Years.
Consumer confidence surged 10% in July, reaching its highest level since February 2026—but here's what most coverage missed: 70% of the survey responses were completed before the Iran strikes and gas price spike on July 7. The real picture arrives in two weeks with the final July reading. Meanwhile, the housing market is holding steady with improving affordability, rising inventory, and prices anchored near all-time highs. Savvy agents are using this nuance to have honest conversations with buyers about timing and opportunity. Have a great one! -John
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Mar 31 •
START HERE! You're in the right place.
Make sure you use it! Most agents scroll the news and feel vaguely informed. You're here to do something different — to actually understand what market shifts mean, how to talk about them confidently, and how to use that knowledge to win more clients and close more deals. This community is your unfair advantage. Here's how to get started: 1. Introduce yourself- Drop your name, where you're located, and one thing you want to get better at. We're a community — say hi. 2. Watch the market update- Each one breaks down what's actually happening in the market — and what to do with it. 3. Show up and share- Ask questions. Share wins. Post what you're seeing in your market. The more you put in, the more you get out. The agents winning right now aren't the ones waiting for the market to calm down. They're the ones who understand it — and know how to talk about it. That's exactly what we build here. Glad you're here. Now let's get to work.
3d •
Rates Hit a 10-Month High. The Median Price Is $800 From a Record
Mortgage rates just hit a 10-month high, driven by the Iran ceasefire breakdown and rising oil prices. Yet Redfin data shows the median home-sale price sitting just $800 below an all-time record, even as pending sales dipped 2.2% and new listings fell to their lowest point since January. Freddie Mac's Sam Khater called the backdrop "modestly improving" since affordability is better than a year ago and inventory remains elevated. Realtor.com trimmed its 2026 price growth forecast to 1.2%, below inflation, reflecting Cotality economist Selma Hepp's point that inflation remains a persistent drag. Bottom line: the market isn't breaking down, it's pausing, with prices holding near records as both supply and demand pull back together.
5d •
Analysts Just Called It a Forever War
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes this week — including a second CENTCOM strike wave Wednesday and Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan — with defense analysts telling CNBC they see no clear path to ending what they're calling a "forever war." Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher says the bias stays toward higher oil prices, inflation, and rates until the Strait of Hormuz situation changes, a view reinforced by the IMF's new forecast of 4.7% global inflation and 32% higher oil prices for 2026. NerdWallet's best-case read is now "rates increasing slowly rather than spiking," and Realtor.com just cut its 2026 home price forecast to 1.2% growth — below inflation, meaning real home values are still losing ground. Purchase applications remain 2% below year-ago levels, though refinance share climbed to 43.2% as some homeowners still find value locking in below today's rates. The bottom line: this isn't a market waiting out a temporary disruption — sellers are still motivated and wages still outpace price growth, but buyers banking on the environment improving soon may be waiting longer than they think. Have a good one! -John
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5d •
The Biggest Housing Law in 30 Years Just Kicked In. Here's the Catch.
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act took effect July 11th — the most significant housing supply reform in three decades, capping large investor home-buying and speeding up construction. At the same time, the Iran ceasefire collapsed and Trump floated a 20% toll on Hormuz shipping, pushing mortgage rates to their highest since August 2025. That rate spike is already showing up in the data: purchase applications fell 7% week-over-week and dropped below year-ago levels for the first time in nearly three months. Still, underlying fundamentals haven't shifted — 826K unsold homes, widespread seller concessions, and wages still outpacing home prices. Watch oil prices, yields, and next month's CPI for where rates head next.
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