Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight — including a Qatari LNG tanker — triggering U.S. strikes on 80+ Iranian sites and an immediate revocation of the Iranian oil waiver granted just 48 hours earlier. Brent crude jumped 3.3% to $76.54 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-month high of 4.56%, reversing some of the recent rate improvement. Housing fundamentals remain unchanged — 826,000 unsold homes and near-record spring seller concessions — so the case for buyers to act hasn't gone away, but the timeline for further rate relief just got less certain.

A 60-day Iranian oil sanctions waiver that's easing inflation pressure and Fed hike odds (down to 1-in-4 from 60%), stacked on a softer June jobs report — pointing to rates gradually easing rather than crashing. Meanwhile inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels (826K unsold homes) and seller concessions are at their highest since 2019, though Redfin's own economists say that buyer advantage is already starting to narrow. I built the full kit around that "window is open but shrinking" narrative.

June's jobs report badly missed expectations — just 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, the weakest month in four months, with April and May revised down a combined 74,000 jobs. The World Cup-driven hospitality boost economists expected never materialized, and softer jobs data eased pressure on the Fed to keep hiking, sending Treasury yields down and mortgage rates to a seven-week low per Freddie Mac. Purchase demand is now above last year's pace for a third straight month, and wages are growing faster (3.5% annually) than home prices (0.8% nationally) — meaning affordability is quietly improving. It's not a hot market, but the combination of softer jobs, lower rates, rising wages, and active buyers makes this one of the most housing-friendly data setups since spring. Have a great one! -John

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Oil has plunged to under $70/barrel from over $115 at the peak of the Iran war — a $45 drop that's easing the inflation pressure which kept rates elevated all spring. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.495% from a May high of 4.660%, and mortgage rates have held stable for six straight weeks with very low volatility, with analysts now projecting further easing if oil stays down. Nationally, home prices are essentially flat (up just 0.8% year-over-year), though performance varies sharply by region — Chicago up 6.5%, Seattle down 2.3%. With inventory elevated, sellers still motivated, and the macro backdrop improving heading into the second half of 2026, buyers who move now don't have to wait for a "perfect" market that may already be arriving. Have a great one! -John