19h • General discussion
Analysts Just Called It a Forever War
The U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh strikes this week — including a second CENTCOM strike wave Wednesday and Iranian retaliation against U.S. assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan — with defense analysts telling CNBC they see no clear path to ending what they're calling a "forever war." Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher says the bias stays toward higher oil prices, inflation, and rates until the Strait of Hormuz situation changes, a view reinforced by the IMF's new forecast of 4.7% global inflation and 32% higher oil prices for 2026. NerdWallet's best-case read is now "rates increasing slowly rather than spiking," and Realtor.com just cut its 2026 home price forecast to 1.2% growth — below inflation, meaning real home values are still losing ground. Purchase applications remain 2% below year-ago levels, though refinance share climbed to 43.2% as some homeowners still find value locking in below today's rates. The bottom line: this isn't a market waiting out a temporary disruption — sellers are still motivated and wages still outpace price growth, but buyers banking on the environment improving soon may be waiting longer than they think.
Have a good one!
-John
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Analysts Just Called It a Forever War
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