Key Takeaways from the Q4 2025 Carrier Rate Report
The report shows a market where supply and demand dynamics are slowly shifting, but freight demand remains soft overall. Many carriers, after a tough earnings quarter, are being cautious on capacity expansion, meaning fleet growth is muted, and rate increases will rely more on capacity discipline than volume growth. Even though demand is down, freight capacity is slowly tightening. That tightness is showing up in spot-to-contract rate spreads, giving carriers a chance to negotiate better contracts. The report suggests that 2026 probably won’t be a “boom” year, but a period of stabilization and rate discipline, where carriers who manage cost, capacity, and service efficiently will have an edge. What this means for you Carriers & 3PLs: Holding capacity steady and being selective on load acceptance can pay off, it’s about margin control, not volume. Brokers: It may be harder to find capacity at low rates. Now’s the moment to lock in contracts and build strong carrier relationships. Shippers: Don’t assume rates will drop just because volumes are down, limited capacity could keep prices steadier than expected. Everyone: Expect 2026 to reward efficiency, flexibility, and planning ahead, not just aggressive growth. https://www.freightwaves.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/24/Q4-Carrier-Rate-Report.pdf