Short term wise Sto rsi 4 hr is oversold and is now curling down. Let it do it work and if we hit oversold this weekend with a dump, enter. Its a bounce play, not long term hold.

The last few days played out exactly as expected. Support didn’t hold. No bullish engulfing. No acceptance reclaim. Just lower highs, weak bounces and continuation down. This is why we wait for confirmation, not hope. Price is now trading below the 2.1k region, which was the last major short-term support. Once that cracked, downside liquidity was obvious. Trend is still down on HTF. This move is distribution resolving, not a surprise. Calling for caution early wasn’t bearish, it was risk management. 2.0k–1.9k: psychological + liquidity magnet. ~1.75k: first serious HTF demand. ~1.4k and 900: true generational zone if panic accelerates. No hero longs. No “it’s cheap” narratives. Capital stays patient and selective.

Now zoom out. This is the important part. 2. 2k is our current reaction zone. This is where buyers must defend for any local base to form. 2k is a psychological + liquidity magnet. Very common to see a sweep here even if a bounce is coming. 1.75k is next major HTF demand if this leg continues lower. 2.6k First serious resistance. 3k Only above here do we even start talking about structural repair. I’m cautious still and not calling a bottom 1. Weekly structure is still bearish Lower highs, lower lows. One bounce doesn’t change that. 2. No bullish engulfing on HTF We’ve had reactions, not a decisive shift in control. 3. This bounce came after liquidation, not accumulation 4. Former supports are now overhead supply My remainder position stays risk-free Do not add unless we reclaim 2.3–2.4k and hold or we get a clean HTF bullish engulfing If stopped at breakeven, that’s a win This is not the phase to be aggressive. It’s the phase to extract profits, reduce risk, and wait for confirmation.

Remember I said about last week weekly bearish engulfing candle. This week was all about failed structure and patience. Every bounce into resistance got sold. The yellow trend line broke, retests failed, and price continued lower. Weekly structure matters here. Last week printed a bearish engulfing and this week followed through. That tells you sellers are still in control on the higher timeframe. We have now traded into the 2.7k demand zone. This area has history and will attract bids. But attraction is not confirmation. So far, there is no bullish engulfing on the daily. Until that prints, this is still a falling market. Oversold conditions alone are not a signal. 3k – first resistance and prior range base 3.24k – daily structure reclaim 3.40k+ – weekly damage repair 2.7k – current demand zone 2.62k – next major support 2.5k – liquidity pocket if weakness continues 2.09k – HTF extreme, only if panic hits How to approach next week I hope no one is holding right now. If you’re sidelined, this is clean. Wait for a daily bullish engulfing to mark a local bottom. Then look for follow-through and reclaim of 3k. Big picture stays intact as long as 2.6k holds.

FOMC paused rates. That removes a major downside catalyst in the short trm. ETH is reacting but still below the yellow trend line. This is important. Daily momentum is improving. Sto RSI continues to rise from oversold The FOMC pause gives permission for a bounce, not confirmation of a trend. If ETH can reclaim and hold above the trend line, then the move has legs. If it stalls here, this becomes another relief rally inside a range. 3k – immediate battle zone Trend line – must reclaim for continuation 3.24k – daily structure break 2.77k – invalidation and downside continuation If you’re in, the 5% SL still makes sense.