⚠️ Why Health Headlines Sound Terrifying — Even When the Actual Risk Is Tiny
Hi everyone — quick note as we get settled here. We’re intentional about the groups we join. We try to participate only in communities where we feel we can add value, offer a parallel industry perspective, and contribute insights that are genuinely useful to the discussion — not distract from it. Our goal isn’t to poach members, redirect traffic, or conflict with the culture of any group. We aim to share perspectives, research, and discussion points that complement what’s already happening here. That said, we fully understand we won’t be for everyone. If any post, comment, or topic ever feels off-tone or misaligned, we’re very open to feedback. A quick DM or note is always welcome, and we’re happy to adjust how we engage within the group. Appreciate the space, and looking forward to contributing where it makes sense. (Part 1 of our TPDB series: Risk — The Numbers They Don’t Want You to Understand) If you’ve ever read a headline that made you feel a sudden jolt of fear — “risk doubles,” “danger spikes,” “linked to cancer,” “raises mortality” — there’s a good chance you were reacting not to facts, but to a statistical illusion most people don’t realize they’ve fallen for. Almost nobody is taught how to read risk properly. And that’s exactly why this trick works so well. 🧮 Two Different Numbers — Two Very Different Realities You’ll never understand health statistics (or media manipulation) until you understand these two terms: 1. Absolute Risk This is the actual, real-world probability that something will happen. Example: “3 out of 1,000 people will experience this in the next 10 years.” Absolute risk tells you the size of the danger in real life. 2. Relative Risk This is a comparison — how much higher or lower a risk is in one group compared to another. Example: “People who do X have twice the risk of Y.” Relative risk tells you how groups differ, but it hides the actual numbers beneath the comparison. 🔥 Where the Manipulation Happens If your absolute risk goes from 2 in 1,000 → 3 in 1,000, that is a tiny absolute change…