Form Submit Conversions in GA but no form fills

I have gtm set up to track form submit conversions based on hitting the "thank-you" page after the form is filled and submitted as taught here. However, I'm now getting conversions in GA but no actual form submissions for those supposed conversions. As I understand it, google will not count a conversion unless it first starts with an ad click, but will it count a page thank-you page refresh from someone that did click ad and submit form? How is this happening?

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