Arab affairs commentator Tzvi Yehezkelly says there is growing talk in Iran about a Venezuela style outcome after Trump spoke about the possibility of regime change. He argues Trump may not be focused on toppling the ayatollah regime itself, but rather on replacing specific figures and bringing Iran under American interests. He adds that comparing Iran to Venezuela can be misleading, and that trying to apply Western political logic to Islamist regimes in the Middle East often leads to the wrong conclusions.

I am posting this to offer a clear, structured look at where Iran’s dissident movement stands after 47 years of authoritarian rule. I’m an American with a background in philosophy and economics, and I follow global events closely. I studied some Iranian history in college, and as a layman I’ve tried to understand the political and social landscape inside Iran and among the Persian people. I use an AI program to help polish and organize my ideas. The analysis is mine; the AI assists with structure, clarity, and historical reference points. I will clearly mark any sections where AI‑assisted text begins so readers know exactly what comes from that process. Based on the indicators I’ve been tracking, I believe the current movement has moved beyond the familiar “stage 1” pattern of street protests and into a more coordinated phase‑2 alignment. Below, I will outline the criteria that define this phase and explain why these signals suggest the movement is approaching the threshold of stage 3, where pressure becomes decisive and regime stability begins to fracture. The key to understanding winning vs losing is pressure level. If pressure level stays high that means the people, dissidents, are winning..it will ebb & flow daily without doubt. It's the overall pressure that matters. -----See below for more of my personal opinions and analysis. (again, I am an educated layman, not an expert. These are my opinions. Everyone think for yourselves....something anathema to the current regime.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that approximately 16 military cargo planes from China have arrived in Iran over the past 56 hours. Largest amount of military aid from China to Iran, especially when Iran is technically bankrupt.

This is getting ridiculous. For the past week he's been on an anti Iranian rant nonstop. This needs to be addressed. Why is he threatened by the fall of the regime? Why is he threatened by the only leader that will actually be an ally to Israel?