One of our newest members today and it was fantastic to hear the hypothesis of gold and where we stand on it. This is driving me to do a brief explanation as to why I think gold hasn’t surge but it hasn’t had a sell off. Please see below my own reasoning behind this. In my next post, I will also upload two charts, one daily charts of gold and the other a 4 hour chart of gold there you will see my current view on gold within the context of days and the four hour. Over the past week there’s been a lot of uncertainty in the markets with everything going on geopolitically, and normally you would expect gold to move much higher in that kind of environment. But it hasn’t really surged in the way many people expected. For me, the reason comes down to competing forces. On one side, you have risk and uncertainty which should support gold. But on the other side, you have rising oil prices feeding into inflation concerns. That then puts pressure on interest rates to stay higher, which keeps yields elevated and liquidity tighter. When money becomes more expensive and liquidity tightens, it tends to limit how far assets like gold and even bitcoin can move. So what we’re seeing isn’t gold failing to react, it’s gold being pulled in two different directions at the same time. That’s why price action feels slower and less aggressive than expected. For me, this is a reminder that markets are rarely driven by one factor. It’s usually multiple forces happening at the same time.

Here is what I’m currently seeing on the daily and four hour chart on gold. This is just a brief technical analysis but it will give you some food for thought on the way I think when I see the charts don’t worry if some of this doesn’t make sense, please though comment or contact me for more explanation or questions.

Here is my one of many to come videos on a trade I placed today. Future videos will be a lot more in-depth and well explained. Stay tuned for full in-depth analysis on videos and also charts. Please don’t follow blindly or copy without telling me or understanding why I do what I do. Feel free to ask questions and interact! Because this will be great learning for everybody. https://youtube.com/shorts/BrSB2bgVhaw?si=vZYrCrlk3uLf4Zk2

We’ve just had the latest PPI data come out and it actually came in slightly softer than expected. At the same time, we’ve got ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz and oil still playing a big role in the bigger picture. So what does that mean? For me, this explains why markets are not reacting aggressively right now. Inflation is still there, but not worse than expected. That gives markets a bit of short-term relief. You can see it in the price action: Oil hasn’t pushed higher with conviction, the S&P is steady, the dollar has softened slightly and bitcoin has moved up but is now hitting resistance. This is what I would call a mixed environment. On one side, inflation pressure from energy and geopolitics is still very real. On the other side, the data is not forcing immediate panic. That’s why we’re seeing hesitation rather than clear direction. For me, the key takeaway is this: Markets don’t move on whether something is good or bad. They move on whether it’s better or worse than expected. Right now, things are uncertain but not escalating aggressively. Stay patient, focus on context, and let the market show its hand. #trading #bitcoin #macroeconomics #E9trading

Macro update and why this actually matters So the US and Iran talks have failed after long negotiations. At first glance it just looks like another headline, but for me this is bigger than that. It tells us the situation isn’t resolved. The ceasefire is still fragile and the risk around oil and inflation hasn’t gone away. Markets might still move up in the short term, we’re even seeing that now, but the underlying picture hasn’t really changed. From my perspective, this could mean oil stays elevated or even pushes higher. If that happens, inflation pressure remains and that likely keeps interest rates higher for longer. That then feeds into bonds, where yields could stay firm, and the dollar may stay supported. For bitcoin, it’s a bit more mixed. Short term strength is possible, but if liquidity stays tight and macro pressure builds, I’d expect more volatility rather than a clean move up. This is where people get caught out. They focus only on price and ignore what’s actually driving it. For me it’s always about context. Not just where price is going, but why it’s moving and whether that move is sustainable. Stay patient and stay aware.