19d • General discussion
Iran talks have failed after long negotiations.
Macro update and why this actually matters
So the US and Iran talks have failed after long negotiations.
At first glance it just looks like another headline, but for me this is bigger than that.
It tells us the situation isn’t resolved. The ceasefire is still fragile and the risk around oil and inflation hasn’t gone away.
Markets might still move up in the short term, we’re even seeing that now, but the underlying picture hasn’t really changed.
From my perspective, this could mean oil stays elevated or even pushes higher. If that happens, inflation pressure remains and that likely keeps interest rates higher for longer.
That then feeds into bonds, where yields could stay firm, and the dollar may stay supported.
For bitcoin, it’s a bit more mixed. Short term strength is possible, but if liquidity stays tight and macro pressure builds, I’d expect more volatility rather than a clean move up.
This is where people get caught out. They focus only on price and ignore what’s actually driving it.
For me it’s always about context.
Not just where price is going, but why it’s moving and whether that move is sustainable.
Stay patient and stay aware.
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Iran talks have failed after long negotiations.
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